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The relationship between energy consumption and prices. Evidence from futures and spot markets in Spain and Portugal
Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100522
Luis A. Gil-Alana , Miguel Martin-Valmayor , Peter Wanke

Slow economic recovery, market concentration, and scant alternative energy sources make the Iberian energy market quite idiosyncratic when compared to the rest of the EU. This paper focusses on the Iberian energy market by dealing with the analysis of the relationship between energy consumption and energy prices by using fractional integration in the Iberian market. This technique is used in order to examine the degree of persistence of the series, looking at the spot and futures markets in Spain and Portugal. The results indicate that all the series are fractionally integrated, showing long memory and mean reverting behaviour. Moreover, a close relation between energy consumption and energy prices is found in the spot market whereas it is not found in the futures market. In fact, there is a weak relationship between the futures market and energy consumption. However, regarding energy pricing, the relationship is stronger but with the spot market itself.



中文翻译:

能源消耗与价格之间的关系。来自西班牙和葡萄牙的期货和现货市场的证据

与欧盟其他地区相比,经济复苏缓慢,市场集中度高以及替代能源匮乏,使伊比利亚能源市场相当特质。本文通过在伊比利亚市场中使用分数积分来分析能耗与能源价格之间的关系,从而将重点放在伊比利亚能源市场上。使用此技术来检查系列的持久性程度,着眼于西班牙和葡萄牙的现货和期货市场。结果表明,所有系列都是分数积分的,显示出长记忆和均值回复行为。此外,在现货市场上发现了能耗与能源价格之间的密切关系,而在期货市场上却没有发现。事实上,期货市场与能源消耗之间的关系很弱。但是,在能源定价方面,这种关系更牢固,但与现货市场本身有关。

更新日期:2020-07-22
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