Abstract Hybrid microgrids represent a cost-effective and viable option to ensure access to energy in rural areas located far from the main grid. Nonetheless, the sizing of rural microgrids is complicated by the lack of models capable of accounting for the evolution of the energy demand over time, which is likely to occur in such contexts as a result of the modification of users' lifestyles. To tackle this issue, the present study aims at developing a novel, long-term optimisation model formulation, capable of accounting for load evolution and performing suitable investment decisions for capacity expansion along the time horizon. Multiple scenarios of load evolution are considered to evaluate the beneficial effects of this novel approach, through the coupling of the model with a tool for stochastic load profiles generation. The results show how this implementation brings lower Net Present Cost to the project and improved correspondence between actual electricity demand and microgrid sizing. Finally, a sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of the approach with respect to input data variability and the Loss of Load parameter.

中文翻译：

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农村微电网的长期规模：通过多步投资计划和随机优化考虑负载演变

摘要 混合微电网是一种经济高效且可行的选择，可确保远离主电网的农村地区获得能源。尽管如此，由于缺乏能够解释能源需求随时间演变的模型，农村微电网的规模变得复杂，这很可能在这种情况下由于用户生活方式的改变而发生。为了解决这个问题，本研究旨在开发一种新颖的长期优化模型公式，能够解释负载演变并在时间范围内为容量扩展执行合适的投资决策。通过将模型与用于生成随机负载曲线的工具耦合，负载演变的多种场景被考虑来评估这种新方法的有益效果。结果表明，这种实施如何为项目带来更低的净现成成本，并改善实际电力需求与微电网规模之间的对应关系。最后，敏感性分析评估了该方法在输入数据可变性和负载损失参数方面的稳健性。