Abstract Infectious diseases, biodiversity loss and livestock expansion are increasing globally, and examining patterns that link them is important for both public health and conservation. This study is a first attempt to analysis globally these patterns using General additive modelling and Structural equation modelling. A positive association between the number of infectious and parasitic diseases recorded in humans and the total number of animal species between nations was observed. A similar positive association between the number of outbreaks of human infectious diseases, corrected for the number of surveys, and the number of threatened animal species, corrected for the number of animal species, suggests that outbreaks of human infectious diseases are linked with threatened biodiversity. Results of the analyses over the longest period of the dataset (2000–2019) showed a positive correlation between the increasing number of cattle and the number of threatened species, a positive correlation between the increasing number of cattle and the number of outbreaks of human diseases, and a lack of correlation between the number of outbreaks and the number of threatened animal species. As a result, the growing importance of livestock on the planet, while threatening biodiversity, increasingly puts human and animal health at risk. This study calls for further analyses on the consequences of livestock expansion, which depends on several factors that vary by country, namely the growth of human population, changes in diet linked to the westernization of habits, agricultural industrialization and the integration into the world trade, but also the cultural values of livestock.

中文翻译：

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新出现的疾病、牲畜扩张和生物多样性丧失在全球范围内呈正相关


摘要 传染病、生物多样性丧失和牲畜扩张在全球范围内日益严重，研究它们之间的联系模式对于公共卫生和保护都很重要。本研究是使用一般加性建模和结构方程建模来全局分析这些模式的首次尝试。研究发现，各国记录的人类传染病和寄生虫病数量与动物物种总数之间存在正相关关系。根据调查数量进行校正的人类传染病爆发数量与根据动物物种数量进行校正的受威胁动物物种数量之间存在类似的正相关关系，这表明人类传染病的爆发与受到威胁的生物多样性有关。对数据集最长时期（2000-2019）的分析结果显示，牛数量增加与受威胁物种数量呈正相关，牛数量增加与人类疾病爆发次数呈正相关，并且爆发次数与受威胁动物物种数量之间缺乏相关性。因此，牲畜在地球上日益重要，在威胁生物多样性的同时，也日益使人类和动物健康面临风险。这项研究要求进一步分析畜牧业扩张的后果，这取决于不同国家不同的几个因素，即人口的增长、与习惯西化相关的饮食变化、农业工业化和融入世界贸易，还有牲畜的文化价值。