Climate change has had a considerable impact on potato production in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone (APE) in North China over the past several decades and it will continue to influence the growth of potato. Thus, understanding the impact of climate change on potato production is critical for future food security in this region. In this study, the calibrated APSIM-Potato model was used to assess the impact of future climate change on potato at Zhangbei (ZB) and Wuchuan (WC) experimental stations. The daily climate data were statistically downscaled from 32 global climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results showed that potato yield under rainfed condition at ZB site respectively increased by 7.3% and 6.7% in the 2030s, 25.8% and 21.8% in the 2060s and 44.7% and 51.9% in 2090s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Potato yield under irrigated condition at WC site increased respectively by 5.5%, 10.0% and 15.1% in the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s under RCP4.5 scenario and by 5.7%, 20.9% and 41.1% under RCP8.5 scenario. Both evapotranspiration and water use efficiency increased under future climate change. Based on the statistical analysis, 70% of the variation in potato yield under rainfed condition at ZB site and 50% of it under irrigated condition at WC site were driven by future climate change. We concluded that rainfed potato yield will be enhanced more by future climate change than irrigation system. Our study filled the knowledge gap in understanding the potential effects of future climate change on potato production under different water management measures, and will be useful in developing adaptable strategies to enhance potato yield in the APE region under future climate change.

中文翻译：

---

未来气候变化下华北农牧交错带两地马铃薯产量的潜在效益

过去几十年，气候变化对华北农牧交错带（APE）马铃薯生产产生了相当大的影响，并将继续影响马铃薯的生长。因此，了解气候变化对马铃薯生产的影响对于该地区未来的粮食安全至关重要。本研究在张北（ZB）和吴川（WC）试验站使用校准后的APSIM-Potato模型评估未来气候变化对马铃薯的影响。每日气候数据在两个代表性浓度路径（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）下从 32 个全球气候模型中进行了统计缩减。结果表明，在RCP4.5和RCP8条件下，ZB站点雨养条件下马铃薯产量在2030年代分别增加了7.3％和6.7％，在2060年代增加了25.8％和21.8％，在2090年代增加了44.7％和51.9％。5个场景。WC场地灌溉条件下马铃薯产量在RCP4.5情景下在2030年代、2060年代和2090年代分别增加了5.5%、10.0%和15.1%，在RCP8.5情景下分别增加了5.7%、20.9%和41.1%。在未来的气候变化下，蒸散量和水资源利用效率均有所提高。根据统计分析，ZB 站点雨育条件下马铃薯产量的 70% 和 WC 站点灌溉条件下 50% 的变化是由未来的气候变化驱动的。我们得出的结论是，与灌溉系统相比，未来气候变化将更多地提高雨养马铃薯的产量。我们的研究填补了了解未来气候变化对不同水资源管理措施下马铃薯生产的潜在影响方面的知识空白，