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Findings from the 2017 HIV estimation round & trend analysis of key indicators 2010-2017: Evidence for prioritising HIV/AIDS programme in India.
Indian Journal of Medical Research ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-01 , DOI: 10.4103/ijmr.ijmr_1619_19 Damodar Sahu 1 , Pradeep Kumar 2 , Nalini Chandra 3 , Shobini Rajan 2 , D K Shukla 1 , S Venkatesh 4 , Saritha Nair 1 , Anil Kumar 1 , Jitenkumar Singh 1 , Srikanth Reddy 1 , Sheela Godbole 5 , A Elangovan 6 , M K Saha 7 , Sanjay Rai 8 , P V M Lakshmi 9 , T Gambhir 10 , Savina Ammassari 3 , Deepika Joshi 11 , Amitabh Das 12 , Poonam Bakshi 13 , Sabyasachi Chakraborty 14 , Amol Palkar 15 , S K Singh 16 , D C S Reddy 17 , Shashi Kant 8 , Arvind Pandey 1 , M Vishnu Vardhana Rao 1
Background & objectives: The National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) and the ICMR-National Institute of Medical Statistics, the nodal agency for conducting HIV estimations in India, have been generating HIV estimates regularly since 2003. The objective of this study was to describe India's biennial HIV estimation 2017 process, data inputs, tool, methodology and epidemiological assumptions used to generate the HIV estimates and trends of key indicators for 2010-2017 at national and State/Union Territory levels.
Methods: Demographic Projection (DemProj) and AIDS Impact Modules (AIM) of Spectrum 5.63 software recommended by the United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS Global Reference Group on HIV Estimates, Modelling and Projections, were used for generating HIV estimations on key indicators. HIV sentinel surveillance, epidemiological and programme data were entered into Estimation Projection Package (EPP), and curve fitting was done using EPP classic model. Finally, calibration was done using the State HIV prevalence of two rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) -3 and -4 and Integrated Biological and Behavioural Surveillance (IBBS), 2014-2015.
Results: The national adult prevalence of HIV was estimated to be 0.22 per cent in 2017. Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland had the highest prevalence over one per cent. An estimated 2.1 million people were living with HIV in 2017, with Maharashtra estimated to have the highest number. Of the 88 thousand annual new HIV infections estimated nationally in 2017, Telangana accounted for the largest share. HIV incidence was found to be higher among key population groups, especially people who inject drugs. The annual AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 69 thousand nationally. For all indicators, geographic variation in levels and trends between States existed.
Interpretation & conclusions: With a slow decline in annual new HIV infections by only 27 per cent from 2010 to 2017 against the national target of 75 per cent by 2020, the national target to end AIDS by 2030 may be missed; although at the sub-national level some States have made better progress to reduce new HIV infection. It calls for reinforcement of HIV prevention, diagnosis and treatment efforts by geographical regions and population groups.
中文翻译：
来自2017年HIV估算回合的结果以及2010-2017年主要指标的趋势分析：印度对HIV / AIDS计划进行优先排序的证据。
背景与目标：自2003年以来，印度进行艾滋病毒估计的节点机构，国家艾滋病控制组织（NACO）和ICMR-国家医学统计研究所一直在定期生成艾滋病毒估计数。用于生成国家和州/州/地区级2010-2017年HIV估计值和主要指标趋势的两年期2017年HIV估计过程，数据输入，工具，方法和流行病学假设。
方法：联合国艾滋病毒/艾滋病规划署艾滋病毒估计，建模和预测全球参考小组推荐的Spectrum 5.63软件的人口统计预测（DemProj）和艾滋病影响模块（AIM）用于生成关键指标的艾滋病毒估计。将艾滋病毒警戒监视，流行病学和程序数据输入到“估计投影程序包”（EPP）中，并使用EPP经典模型进行曲线拟合。最后，使用2014-2015年两轮全国家庭健康调查（NFHS）-3和-4和综合生物学与行为监测（IBBS）的州HIV患病率进行校准。
结果：据估计，2017年全国成人艾滋病毒感染率为0.22％。米佐拉姆邦，曼尼普尔邦和那加兰邦的艾滋病毒感染率最高，超过1％。2017年，估计有210万人感染了艾滋病毒，其中马哈拉施特拉邦的人数估计最高。在2017年全国估计的每年8.8万例艾滋病毒新感染病例中，特兰甘纳邦所占份额最大。发现在主要人群中，特别是在注射毒品的人群中，艾滋病毒的发病率更高。全国每年与艾滋病相关的死亡估计为6.9万人。对于所有指标，国家之间的水平和趋势存在地域差异。
解释和结论：从2010年到2017年，每年新增艾滋病毒感染率仅缓慢下降27％，而到2020年达到75％的国家目标，则可能无法实现到2030年终结艾滋病的国家目标；尽管在地方以下一级，一些国家在减少新的艾滋病毒感染方面取得了更好的进展。它呼吁按地理区域和人群加强艾滋病毒的预防，诊断和治疗工作。
更新日期：2020-07-21
Indian Journal of Medical Research ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-01 , DOI: 10.4103/ijmr.ijmr_1619_19 Damodar Sahu 1 , Pradeep Kumar 2 , Nalini Chandra 3 , Shobini Rajan 2 , D K Shukla 1 , S Venkatesh 4 , Saritha Nair 1 , Anil Kumar 1 , Jitenkumar Singh 1 , Srikanth Reddy 1 , Sheela Godbole 5 , A Elangovan 6 , M K Saha 7 , Sanjay Rai 8 , P V M Lakshmi 9 , T Gambhir 10 , Savina Ammassari 3 , Deepika Joshi 11 , Amitabh Das 12 , Poonam Bakshi 13 , Sabyasachi Chakraborty 14 , Amol Palkar 15 , S K Singh 16 , D C S Reddy 17 , Shashi Kant 8 , Arvind Pandey 1 , M Vishnu Vardhana Rao 1
Affiliation
Background & objectives: The National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) and the ICMR-National Institute of Medical Statistics, the nodal agency for conducting HIV estimations in India, have been generating HIV estimates regularly since 2003. The objective of this study was to describe India's biennial HIV estimation 2017 process, data inputs, tool, methodology and epidemiological assumptions used to generate the HIV estimates and trends of key indicators for 2010-2017 at national and State/Union Territory levels.
Methods: Demographic Projection (DemProj) and AIDS Impact Modules (AIM) of Spectrum 5.63 software recommended by the United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS Global Reference Group on HIV Estimates, Modelling and Projections, were used for generating HIV estimations on key indicators. HIV sentinel surveillance, epidemiological and programme data were entered into Estimation Projection Package (EPP), and curve fitting was done using EPP classic model. Finally, calibration was done using the State HIV prevalence of two rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) -3 and -4 and Integrated Biological and Behavioural Surveillance (IBBS), 2014-2015.
Results: The national adult prevalence of HIV was estimated to be 0.22 per cent in 2017. Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland had the highest prevalence over one per cent. An estimated 2.1 million people were living with HIV in 2017, with Maharashtra estimated to have the highest number. Of the 88 thousand annual new HIV infections estimated nationally in 2017, Telangana accounted for the largest share. HIV incidence was found to be higher among key population groups, especially people who inject drugs. The annual AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 69 thousand nationally. For all indicators, geographic variation in levels and trends between States existed.
Interpretation & conclusions: With a slow decline in annual new HIV infections by only 27 per cent from 2010 to 2017 against the national target of 75 per cent by 2020, the national target to end AIDS by 2030 may be missed; although at the sub-national level some States have made better progress to reduce new HIV infection. It calls for reinforcement of HIV prevention, diagnosis and treatment efforts by geographical regions and population groups.
中文翻译：
来自2017年HIV估算回合的结果以及2010-2017年主要指标的趋势分析：印度对HIV / AIDS计划进行优先排序的证据。
背景与目标：自2003年以来，印度进行艾滋病毒估计的节点机构，国家艾滋病控制组织（NACO）和ICMR-国家医学统计研究所一直在定期生成艾滋病毒估计数。用于生成国家和州/州/地区级2010-2017年HIV估计值和主要指标趋势的两年期2017年HIV估计过程，数据输入，工具，方法和流行病学假设。
方法：联合国艾滋病毒/艾滋病规划署艾滋病毒估计，建模和预测全球参考小组推荐的Spectrum 5.63软件的人口统计预测（DemProj）和艾滋病影响模块（AIM）用于生成关键指标的艾滋病毒估计。将艾滋病毒警戒监视，流行病学和程序数据输入到“估计投影程序包”（EPP）中，并使用EPP经典模型进行曲线拟合。最后，使用2014-2015年两轮全国家庭健康调查（NFHS）-3和-4和综合生物学与行为监测（IBBS）的州HIV患病率进行校准。
结果：据估计，2017年全国成人艾滋病毒感染率为0.22％。米佐拉姆邦，曼尼普尔邦和那加兰邦的艾滋病毒感染率最高，超过1％。2017年，估计有210万人感染了艾滋病毒，其中马哈拉施特拉邦的人数估计最高。在2017年全国估计的每年8.8万例艾滋病毒新感染病例中，特兰甘纳邦所占份额最大。发现在主要人群中，特别是在注射毒品的人群中，艾滋病毒的发病率更高。全国每年与艾滋病相关的死亡估计为6.9万人。对于所有指标，国家之间的水平和趋势存在地域差异。
解释和结论：从2010年到2017年，每年新增艾滋病毒感染率仅缓慢下降27％，而到2020年达到75％的国家目标，则可能无法实现到2030年终结艾滋病的国家目标；尽管在地方以下一级，一些国家在减少新的艾滋病毒感染方面取得了更好的进展。它呼吁按地理区域和人群加强艾滋病毒的预防，诊断和治疗工作。
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