While species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to climate change, they do not explicitly indicate the extent to which plastic responses ameliorate climate change impacts. Here we use data on plastic responses of 32 species of Drosophila to desiccation stress to suggest that basal resistance, rather than adult hardening, is relatively more important in determining species differences in desiccation resistance and sensitivity to climate change. We go on to show, using the semimechanistic SDM CLIMEX, that the inclusion of plasticity has some impact on current species distributions and future vulnerability for widespread species but has little impact on the distribution of arguably more vulnerable tropically restricted species.

中文翻译：

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表型可塑性对干燥性，气候变化和未来物种分布的影响：可塑性会产生很大影响吗？

尽管物种分布模型（SDM）被广泛用于预测物种对气候变化的脆弱性，但它们并未明确指出塑性响应改善气候变化影响的程度。在这里，我们使用有关32种果蝇对干燥胁迫的塑性响应的数据来表明，在确定抗旱性和对气候变化敏感性的物种差异方面，基础抗性而不是成年硬化更为重要。我们使用半力学SDM CLIMEX继续表明，可塑性的包含对当前物种分布和未来广泛分布物种的脆弱性有一定影响，但对可能更脆弱的受热带限制的物种的分布影响不大。