The latest version of the atmospheric general circulation model ARPEGE‐Climat was used to perform 5‐member ensemble simulations for both present and RCP8.5 scenario climates (mid‐21st century). The rotated/stretched configuration enables a local horizontal resolution of less than 15 km over the tropical North Atlantic basin. Moreover, a tracking algorithm was used to extract tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by the model. Through an Eulerian approach, this paper focuses on the relationships between TCs and rainfall over three French islands in the West Indies. Although the model underestimates the occurrence of TCs over this latitude band, especially in September, precipitation rates during TC days are realistic. Indeed, the model shows a good capacity to reproduce different relationships between island rainfall and TC characteristics such as proximity and intensity. In addition to rainfall distribution, the TC contribution to annual cumulative rainfall is also well captured by the model. We used three different series characterizing precipitation at the island scale to underline that the model overestimates the area that is impacted by TC rainfall. According to the simulations, the number of minor TCs tends to decrease in the future (about −15%) over the study domain (50–70°W × 10–25°N) despite a +1.6°C over ocean warming. In contrast, no trend was detected in the number of major hurricanes. Except for annual precipitation that decreases significantly in the future (about −15%), no significant change was detected in the relationships between TC properties and island rainfall.

中文翻译：

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欧拉方法对陆地上空热带气旋降水的预测：西印度群岛三个岛屿的案例研究

使用最新版本的大气通用环流模型ARPEGE-Climat对当前和RCP8.5情景气候（21世纪中叶）进行5人总体模拟。旋转/拉伸配置使热带北大西洋盆地的局部水平分辨率小于15 km。此外，使用跟踪算法提取由模型模拟的热带气旋（TC）。通过欧拉方法，本文重点研究了西印度群岛三个法国岛屿上TC与降雨之间的关系。尽管该模型低估了该纬度带上TC的发生，特别是在9月，但TC天的降水率是现实的。确实，该模型显示出良好的能力，可以再现岛屿降雨与TC特性（如接近度和强度）之间的不同关系。除了降雨分布以外，该模型还很好地反映了TC对年度累积降雨量的贡献。我们使用了三个不同的序列来表征岛屿规模的降水，以强调该模型高估了受TC降雨影响的面积。根据模拟，尽管海洋温度升高了+ 1.6°C，但未来整个研究领域（50-70°W×10-25°N）的次要TC数量趋于减少（约-15％）。相反，在主要飓风的数量上没有发现趋势。除了将来的年降水量大幅减少（约-15％）外，