Abstract The probabilities of exceedance of the maximum tensile stress in cement-stabilized soft clay, the displacement of retaining structure and bottom upheave are explored with deterministic finite element method and fuzzy finite element approach (FFEA) for a Shanghai pit excavation. Effect of the scale of fluctuation on the probability of exceedance is clearly observed. In the cases with an infinite scale of fluctuation, on account of the asymmetrical configuration of resulting fuzzy number, the probability of exceeding the threshold of the maximum tensile stress is comparatively low and will result in an unsafe design; however, the probability of exceeding the threshold of the displacement of the cement-reinforced soft clay and tunnel are a bit higher, which will consequently lead to a conservative design. For smaller threshold, the scenario with a smaller scale of fluctuation yields a higher probability of exceedance, and the trend reverses when relatively larger threshold is adopted.

中文翻译：

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水泥稳定软粘土开挖的正常使用失效概率

摘要 采用确定性有限元法和模糊有限元法(FFEA)研究了上海某基坑开挖水泥稳定软粘土最大拉应力超过最大拉应力、挡土结构位移和底隆的概率。可以清楚地观察到波动幅度对超标概率的影响。在波动幅度无限大的情况下，由于产生的模糊数的配置不对称，超过最大拉应力阈值的概率较低，会导致设计不安全；然而，水泥增强软粘土和隧道的位移超过阈值的概率稍高，因此会导致设计保守。对于较小的阈值，