Despite the long-standing demand for research on dynamic lifecycle assessment (LCA) for policymaking, only a few studies have addressed this subject in conjunction with other systems thinking disciplines, such as energy systems models (ESMs) and integrated assessment models (IAMs), which have achieved tremendous success in assessing climate policies in future scenarios. This study explains our methodological advances in the global application of LCA incorporated in IAMs, specifically dose-response functions, models, and future scenarios. We investigate the application of the lifecycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME), developed under the current environmental situation in Japan and globally, to be consistent and compatible with our IAM, which comprises three resource balance models and a simplified climate model. The IAM endogenously generates most inventories consistent with energy scenarios and climate policies linked with the applied LIME. The IAM and LIME are formulated to minimize the discounted sum of supplying the cost of resources over their lifecycles (i.e., from development to end-of-life) to generate time evolutions for the endpoint impacts over this century on a global scale with/without the 2-degree Celsius (2DC) target in a 100% renewable energy scenario. Unlike existing LCA+ESM/IAM studies, which focus on power generation technologies and related (in)direct embedded energy consumption on a lifecycle basis, our model’s expansion to mineral and biomass resources, in addition to energy, has the following novel results: (1) The following inventories in the 2DC target are generally lower than those in business as usual (BAU): temperature and sea level rise, natural resource, and waste discharge; further, SOx emissions are significantly reduced by reducing coal production while increasing forestry. (2) The environmental impacts on the four endpoints of minerals, land use, and land-use change, with the exclusion of energy-related impacts, are significantly larger than those related to energy. (3) Finally, by ensuring inventory reduction, the 2DC target scenario can reduce overall endpoint impacts (by maximum around 20%), except the impacts on biodiversity resulting from forestry expansion to meet predetermined targets. Unlike mainstream IAM analyses, we incorporate LIME, instead of energy- and biomass-related resource and climate change impacts alone; our model thus provides a comprehensive perspective on various natural resources and their impacts on a lifecycle basis. The exclusion of the weighting process and retention of the four endpoints enable us to easily interpret the results. Further, this application of LCA to IAM enables us to further understand and assess natural resources and environmental impacts.

中文翻译：

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迈向更全面的环境影响评估：适用于本世纪的 LCIA 和 IAM 相互关联的全球模型

尽管长期需要对动态生命周期评估 (LCA) 进行决策研究，但只有少数研究结合其他系统思维学科，如能源系统模型 (ESM) 和综合评估模型 (IAM)，来解决这一主题，在评估未来情景中的气候政策方面取得了巨大成功。这项研究解释了我们在 IAM 中纳入 LCA 的全球应用的方法论进展，特别是剂量反应函数、模型和未来情景。我们调查了在日本和全球当前环境状况下开发的基于端点建模 (LIME) 的生命周期影响评估方法的应用，以与我们的 IAM 保持一致和兼容，其中包括三个资源平衡模型和一个简化的气候模型。IAM 内生地生成与能源情景和气候政策一致的大多数清单，这些清单与应用的 LIME 相关。IAM 和 LIME 的制定是为了最大限度地减少资源在其生命周期（即从开发到生命周期结束）内的供应成本的折扣总和，以生成本世纪全球范围内端点影响的时间演变，有/没有100% 可再生能源情景中的摄氏 2 度 (2DC) 目标。与现有的 LCA+ESM/IAM 研究不同，这些研究侧重于发电技术和生命周期基础上的相关（内）直接嵌入能源消耗，我们的模型除了能源之外，扩展到矿产和生物质资源，具有以下新颖的结果：（ 1）2DC目标中的以下库存普遍低于一切照旧（BAU）：温度和海平面上升、自然资源和废物排放；此外，通过在增加林业的同时减少煤炭产量，SOx 排放量显着减少。(2) 对矿产、土地利用和土地利用变化四个端点的环境影响，不包括能源相关影响，显着大于能源相关影响。(3) 最后，通过确保库存减少，2DC 目标情景可以减少总体终点影响（最多减少 20% 左右），但为实现预定目标而扩大林业对生物多样性的影响除外。与主流的 IAM 分析不同，我们纳入了 LIME，而不是单独的与能源和生物质相关的资源和气候变化影响；因此，我们的模型为各种自然资源及其对生命周期的影响提供了全面的视角。排除加权过程和保留四个端点使我们能够轻松解释结果。此外，将 LCA 应用于 IAM 使我们能够进一步了解和评估自然资源和环境影响。