ABSTRACT This study investigated the impacts of changes in land cover and climate on runoff and sediment yield in a river basin in India. Land Change Modeler was used to derive the future land cover and its changes using the Sankey diagram approach. The future climatic parameters were derived from five general circulation models for two emission scenarios with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The land cover and climate change impacts on runoff and sediment yield were estimated using SWAT model. The results show important changes in land cover and indicate that urban and agricultural areas strongly influence the runoff and sediment yield. Among the land cover and climate change impacts, climate has more predominant (70%–95%) impact. Runoff and sediment yield are likely to decrease in both RCP scenarios in the future period. The impacts of land cover changes are more prominent on sediment yield than runoff.

中文翻译：

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评估土地覆盖和气候对流域径流和产沙量的影响

摘要 本研究调查了土地覆盖和气候变化对印度河流流域径流和泥沙产量的影响。Land Change Modeler 用于使用 Sankey 图方法推导出未来的土地覆盖及其变化。未来的气候参数来自具有代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 的两个排放情景的五个大环流模型。土地覆盖和气候变化对径流和沉积物产量的影响是使用 SWAT 模型估计的。结果显示了土地覆盖的重要变化，并表明城市和农业区对径流和泥沙产量有很大影响。在土地覆盖和气候变化的影响中，气候的影响更为显着（70%–95%）。在未来一段时间内，两种 RCP 情景中的径流和沉积物产量可能会下降。