Abstract

This study evaluates the vulnerability of aquifers to the nitrate concentration variations. Prediction of nitrate concentration using MT3DMs modeling for a period of 10 years. The results showed that most of the wells have faced concentration increment, where it is exacerbated in the lower areas of agricultural and urban lands. The prediction of nitrate concentration zoning map obtained from the model was used to calibrate the DRASTIC vulnerability index in the aquifer. The AHP and Wilcoxon method was applied to calibrate the parameters of the DRASTIC index. The final results of the vulnerability index showed that the central aquifer parts located downstream of the agricultural lands and urban areas along the main drainage had the highest vulnerability degree. Correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficient improved from 0.47 to 0.72, and the accuracy of the index was increased to identify the areas susceptible to development where have the least vulnerability.

摘要

本研究评估了含水层对硝酸盐浓度变化的脆弱性。使用 MT3DMs 建模预测 10 年的硝酸盐浓度。结果表明，大部分井都面临浓度增加，在农用地和城市用地较低的区域加剧。从模型中获得的硝酸盐浓度分区图预测用于校准含水层中的 DRASTIC 脆弱性指数。应用层次分析法和 Wilcoxon 方法校准 DRASTIC 指数的参数。脆弱性指数的最终结果表明，位于农业用地下游的中央含水层和主干渠沿线城市地区的脆弱程度最高。相关分析表明相关系数从0.47提高到0.72，