ABSTRACT

It has great importance to study the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece because the country can be the origin of the spread of vivax malaria to the northern areas. The potential lengths of the transmission seasons of Plasmodium vivax malaria were forecasted for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 and were combined. The potential ranges were predicted by Climate Envelope Modelling Method. The models show moderate areal increase and altitudinal shift in the malaria-endemic areas in Greece in the future. The length of the transmission season is predicted to increase by 1 to 2 months, mainly in the mid-elevation regions and the Aegean Archipelago. The combined factors also predict the decrease of vivax malaria-free area in Greece. It can be concluded that rather the elongation of the transmission season will lead to an increase of the malaria risk in Greece than the increase in the suitability values.

摘要

研究气候变化对希腊间日疟的潜在影响具有重要意义，因为该国可能是间日疟向北部地区传播的发源地。间日疟原虫传播季节的潜在长度对 2041-2060 年和 2061-2080 年的疟疾进行了预测，并将其合并。通过气候包络模拟方法预测潜在范围。模型显示，未来希腊疟疾流行地区的面积适度增加和海拔高度变化。预计传播季节的长度将增加 1 至 2 个月，主要在中海拔地区和爱琴群岛。综合因素还预测希腊无间日疟区的减少。可以得出结论，传播季节的延长将导致希腊疟疾风险的增加，而不是适宜性值的增加。