Abstract Climate change can adversely impact the quality of environmental services provided under Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs, thereby reducing their effectiveness. In this paper, a modelling framework is developed to explore how PES negotiations between forestry and fishery-based communities may be affected when warming reduces the stock of fish as well as forest biomass growth rates. Under a PES arrangement, forestry-based communities afforest the lake's catchment region, which helps improve fish stock abundance through reduced sediment loading. When climate warming adversely impacts fish yields, the value of restoring degraded lands in the catchment region increases, making the negotiating powers of the fishing and forestry dependent communities dynamic. Results suggest that the prospect of a climate-driven negotiating power in the future calls for higher PES payments by the fishing community in order to incentivize early restoration. Warming could also affect forest biomass growth rates in the long run. However, findings from this study suggest that warming driven forest biomass growth rate decline may have a relatively lower impact on PES negotiations compared to the direct impact of warming on lake's fish productivity.

中文翻译：

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通过气候适应性 PES 机制保护变暖的湖泊

摘要 气候变化会对生态系统服务付费 (PES) 计划下提供的环境服务质量产生不利影响，从而降低其有效性。在本文中，开发了一个建模框架，以探讨当变暖减少鱼类种群和森林生物量增长率时，林业和渔业社区之间的 PES 谈判如何受到影响。在 PES 安排下，以林业为基础的社区为湖泊的集水区造林，这有助于通过减少沉积物负荷来提高鱼类种群的丰度。当气候变暖对鱼类产量产生不利影响时，恢复集水区退化土地的价值就会增加，从而使依赖渔业和林业的社区的谈判权力充满活力。结果表明，未来气候驱动的谈判力量的前景要求渔业社区支付更高的 PES 费用，以激励早期恢复。从长远来看，变暖还可能影响森林生物量增长率。然而，这项研究的结果表明，与变暖对湖泊鱼类生产力的直接影响相比，变暖导致的森林生物量增长率下降对 PES 谈判的影响可能相对较小。