Abstract Managing for resilience in agriculture will be required to overcome future challenges such as growing food demand, climatic uncertainty, scarce raw materials and economic instability. Identifying resilience-enhancing practices is therefore fundamental for developing sustainable agroecosystems. We aimed to assess the resilience of two agricultural systems with different levels of diversification in southern Brazil: a specialized soybean (Glycine max) system and an integrated soybean-beef cattle system. We assessed the robustness and the adaptive capacity of these systems when facing climate hazards and price volatility. The study was based on a long-term trial that has been carried out since 2001, composed of an annual rotation of no-till soybean production during the summer and grazing of mixed black oat (Avena strigosa) and Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) pasture in the winter. Treatments consisted of four grazing intensities in the integrated crop-livestock system (ICLS), defined by sward heights: 10, 20, 30 and 40 cm plus an ungrazed control representing the specialized cropping system (CS). The experiment was carried out using a randomized complete block design with three replicates. We analysed system results over five years using two methods: i) a downside risk analysis to estimate the expected losses of yield and gross value added; and ii) the Ecological Network Analysis, which was applied to each treatment and year, for the assessment of the resilience of nitrogen (N-Ɍflow) and phosphorus (P-Ɍflow) flows. Both methods showed that co-located crop-livestock production in an ICLS was more resilient than the specialized soybean system and had improved nutrient cycling and resource-use efficiency. The effects of grazing management on system resilience depended on the output: beef yields were more stable under lower grazing intensities, but the risk of falling below a target economic threshold was inversely proportional to grazing intensity and null when the highest grazing intensity was adopted. The ecological network analysis did not reveal differences in resilience of nutrient flows among grazing management treatments. Our study suggests that Ɍflow (N or P) is a useful proxy for assessing the robustness and adaptability of agroecosystems. Our comprehensive resilience analysis of nutrient and economic flows provides evidence that system diversification through the integration of grazing animals into specialized cropping systems is a good strategy towards the sustainable intensification of agriculture. It would be relevant, however, to consider further studies comparing more complex system configurations and levels of diversification.

中文翻译：

---

系统多样化和放牧管理作为增强复原力的农业实践：作物-牲畜整合的案例

摘要 为应对未来的挑战，例如不断增长的粮食需求、气候不确定性、稀缺的原材料和经济不稳定，需要对农业的复原力进行管理。因此，确定增强复原力的做法是发展可持续农业生态系统的基础。我们旨在评估巴西南部具有不同多样化水平的两个农业系统的弹性：一个专门的大豆（Glycine max）系统和一个集成的大豆-牛肉系统。我们评估了这些系统在面临气候灾害和价格波动时的稳健性和适应能力。该研究基于自 2001 年以来进行的一项长期试验，由夏季每年轮作免耕大豆生产和冬季混合黑燕麦 (Avena strigosa) 和意大利黑麦草 (Lolium multiflorum) 牧场组成。处理包括综合作物 - 牲畜系统 (ICLS) 中的四种放牧强度，由草丛高度定义：10、20、30 和 40 厘米加上代表专门种植系统 (CS) 的未放牧控制。使用随机完整区组设计进行了三个重复的实验。我们使用两种方法分析了五年来的系统结果：i) 下行风险分析，以估计产量和总附加值的预期损失；和 ii) 应用于每个处理和年份的生态网络分析，用于评估氮 (N-Ɍflow) 和磷 (P-Ɍflow) 流的弹性。这两种方法都表明，ICLS 中的作物-牲畜共存生产比专门的大豆系统更具弹性，并改善了养分循环和资源利用效率。放牧管理对系统弹性的影响取决于产出：在较低的放牧强度下牛肉产量更稳定，但低于目标经济阈值的风险与放牧强度成反比，当采用最高放牧强度时为零。生态网络分析没有揭示放牧管理处理之间养分流恢复力的差异。我们的研究表明，Ɍflow（N 或 P）是评估农业生态系统稳健性和适应性的有用指标。我们对养分和经济流动的综合复原力分析提供了证据，表明通过将放牧动物融入专门的种植系统来实现系统多样化是实现农业可持续集约化的良好战略。然而，考虑比较更复杂的系统配置和多样化水平的进一步研究将是相关的。