Purpose

There are a large number of interdependent risk factors in complex project. Risk response strategy without considering risk correlation cannot achieve good risk response. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to propose a risk response strategy selection model considering risk correlation based on the grey K-shell algorithm.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper mainly focuses on the measurement of two aspects of risk factors. One is the ability of the risk factors to influence other risk factors, another is the degree affected by other risk factors. Both of the above are measured by the grey K-shell algorithm improved in this paper, and the weights of these are used for the constructing of risk response strategy selection model.

Findings

The risk response strategy considering risk relevance is more effective than the risk response strategy without considering risk relevance. Also, results indicate that as the risk response budget increases the risk response effect also increases, and the increasing trend is weakens. The relative gap between the effect of response strategies considering risk relevance and the strategy without considering risk relevance increases first and, then, decreases with the increase of budget.

Originality/value

The results of this paper demonstrate that the risk response strategy considering risk relevance is more effective than not considering risk relevance. The approach presented in this paper can guide project managers’ risk decisions and may also help to find the best risk response budget.

中文翻译：

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基于灰色K-shell算法的项目风险应对策略选择研究

目的

复杂项目中存在大量相互依赖的风险因素。不考虑风险相关性的风险应对策略无法实现良好的风险应对。因此，本文的目的是提出一种基于灰色K壳算法的考虑风险相关性的风险响应策略选择模型。

设计/方法/方法

本文主要关注风险因素两个方面的测量。一种是危险因素影响其他危险因素的能力，另一种是受其他危险因素影响的程度。通过本文改进的灰色K-shell算法对以上两种情况进行了度量，并将它们的权重用于构建风险响应策略选择模型。

发现

考虑风险相关性的风险响应策略比不考虑风险相关性的风险响应策略更有效。此外，结果表明，随着风险应对预算的增加，风险应对效果也将增强，并且增长趋势会减弱。考虑风险相关性的响应策略的效果与不考虑风险相关性的策略之间的相对差距首先增大，然后随着预算的增加而减小。

创意/价值

本文的结果表明，考虑风险相关性的风险应对策略比不考虑风险相关性更有效。本文提出的方法可以指导项目经理的风险决策，也可以帮助找到最佳的风险应对预算。