Coastal freshwater supply and demand systems are expected to be significantly affected by changes to both climatic and non-climatic drivers over coming decades. Adapting to these changes to secure adequate freshwater to meet the rising demands of socio-economic development has become a critical task for decision-makers. Whilst a range of adaptation options may be available, the complexity and interconnectedness of water resource systems make it challenging to identify which options are likely to be most feasible and effective. Here, we present a Bayesian decision network (BDN) that was co-developed with local experts to identify appropriate adaptation options for freshwater management under both current and likely future conditions in the Da Do Basin of coastal Vietnam. Potential adaptation options were prioritised according to cost-effectiveness based on relative costs incurred and relative utilities delivered across a range of future scenarios. The BDN model indicated that cost-effectiveness of adaptation options varied between future scenarios. Constructing pumping stations was the most cost-effective option under climate change scenarios, whilst a higher water price was the most cost-effective option under non-climatic changes. Under combined climatic and non-climatic changes, constructing pumping stations in combination with increasing water prices provided the most cost-effective option. The model affords an opportunity for decision-makers in the Da Do Basin to prioritise and evaluate appropriate and feasible adaptation actions under different scenarios with respect to multiple drivers.

中文翻译：

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确定和优先考虑气候和非气候变化下沿海淡水供需系统的适应方案

预计在未来几十年中，气候和非气候驱动因素的变化将严重影响沿海淡水供需系统。适应这些变化以确保有足够的淡水以满足社会经济发展不断增长的需求，这已成为决策者的一项关键任务。尽管可能有一系列适应方案，但是水资源系统的复杂性和相互联系使确定哪些方案最可行和最有效的挑战。在这里，我们介绍了与当地专家共同开发的贝叶斯决策网络（BDN），以为越南沿海的Da Do盆地在当前以及未来可能的条件下确定淡水管理的适当适应方案。根据产生的相对成本和在一系列未来情况下交付的相对公用事业，根据成本效益对潜在的适应方案进行了优先排序。BDN模型表明，适应方案的成本效益在未来情况之间有所不同。在气候变化的情况下，建设泵站是最具成本效益的选择，而在非气候变化的情况下，较高的水价是最具成本效益的选择。在气候和非气候变化共同作用下，建设泵站并结合不断上涨的水价提供了最具成本效益的选择。该模型为达多盆地的决策者提供了一个机会，可以针对多种驱动因素，在不同情况下对优先考虑和评估适当可行的适应措施进行评估。