In the light of continuing anthropogenic climate change, it is important to gain a deep understanding of rice genotypic behavior under climate change. Most efforts on modeling rice performance under climate change focused on studying some aspects of climate change only such as CO2 concentration ([CO2]) or temperature. A comprehensive study on the role of genotypic variability in rice under diverse [CO2] × temperature × rainfall × representative concentration pathway (RCP) × environment is rare. The objective of the present study was to use AquaCrop-Rice model to study the impact of climate change on different rice cultivars in northern Iran. Three common improved and local rice cultivars were chosen, and their growth and yield behavior were simulated under three environments, three RCPs (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), four temperature (+ 1 °C, + 2 °C, + 3 °C, + 4 °C), and two rainfall (± 20%) scenarios under two future timeframes (2020–2051 and 2052–2083). Results indicated different responses of rice cultivars under climate change. In general, improved cultivars acted better than the local cultivar although interaction with environment was also observed. Increase in [CO2] and temperature most often favored rice yield. However, RCP8.5 along with temperature scenario + 1 °C resulted in the highest aboveground biomass and yield. Rainfall variation was not of considerable importance. Phenology (flowering and physiological maturity) was accelerated especially by temperature. The length of the vegetative phase was more influenced by temperature than the length of the generative phase. Our simulations also indicated a potential for adaptation of improved cultivars under increasing [CO2] through their reduced stomatal conductance.

中文翻译：

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使用 AquaCrop-Rice 模拟气候变化对亚热带湿润环境中各种水稻基因型的物候、生长和产量的影响

鉴于持续的人为气候变化，深入了解气候变化下水稻的基因型行为非常重要。大多数在气候变化下模拟水稻性能的工作都集中在研究气候变化的某些方面，例如 CO2 浓度 ([CO2]) 或温度。对不同[CO2]×温度×降雨量×代表性浓度途径（RCP）×环境下水稻基因型变异作用的综合研究很少见。本研究的目的是使用 AquaCrop-Rice 模型来研究气候变化对伊朗北部不同水稻品种的影响。选择了三个常见的改良和地方水稻品种，在三种环境下模拟了它们的生长和产量行为，三种 RCPs（2.6、4.5 和 8.5），四种温度（+ 1 °C、+ 2 °C、+ 3 °C、+ 4 °C），以及两个未来时间框架（2020-2051 和 2052-2083）下的两种降雨（± 20%）情景。结果表明水稻品种在气候变化下的响应不同。总的来说，尽管也观察到与环境的相互作用，但改良品种的表现优于当地品种。[CO2] 和温度的增加通常最有利于水稻产量。然而，RCP8.5 以及温度情景 + 1 °C 导致地上生物量和产量最高。降雨量变化不是很重要。物候（开花和生理成熟）尤其受温度影响。营养期的长度比生殖期的长度受温度的影响更大。