Density-dependent population growth regulates long-term urban expansion and shapes distinctive socioeconomic trends. Despite a marked heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the resident population, Mediterranean European countries are considered more homogeneous than countries in other European regions as far as settlement structure and processes of metropolitan growth are concerned. However, rising socioeconomic inequalities among Southern European regions reflect latent demographic and territorial transformations that require further investigation. An integrated assessment of the spatio-temporal distribution of resident populations in more than 1,000 municipalities (1961–2011) was carried out in this study to characterize density-dependent processes of metropolitan growth in Greece. Using geographically weighted regressions, the results of our study identified distinctive local relationships between population density and growth rates over time. Our results demonstrate that demographic growth rates were non-linearly correlated with other variables, such as population density, with positive and negative impacts during the first (1961–1971) and the last (2001–2011) observation decade, respectively. These findings outline a progressive shift over time from density-dependent processes of population growth, reflecting a rapid development of large metropolitan regions (Athens, Thessaloniki) in the 1960s, to density-dependent processes more evident in medium-sized cities and accessible rural regions in the 2000s. Density-independent processes of population growth have been detected in the intermediate study period (1971–2001). This work finally discusses how a long-term analysis of demographic growth, testing for density-dependent mechanisms, may clarify the intrinsic role of population concentration and dispersion in different phases of the metropolitan cycle in Mediterranean Europe.

中文翻译：

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人口趋势与城市化：使用局部回归方法模拟密度效应

依赖人口密度的人口增长调节了城市的长期扩张，并形成了独特的社会经济趋势。尽管常住人口的空间分布存在明显的异质性，但就定居结构和大都市区增长过程而言，地中海欧洲国家被认为比其他欧洲地区的国家更为同质。但是，南欧地区之间日益严重的社会经济不平等反映了潜在的人口和领土转变，需要进一步调查。在这项研究中，对1000多个城市的居民时空分布进行了综合评估（1961-2011年），以表征希腊大都市区增长的密度依赖过程。使用地理加权回归，我们的研究结果确定了人口密度与长期增长率之间的独特局部关系。我们的结果表明，人口增长率与其他变量（例如人口密度）非线性相关，分别在前十年（1961-1971年）和最近十年（2001-2011年）分别具有正向和负向影响。这些发现概述了随着时间的推移，人口密度的增长过程逐渐发生变化，这反映了1960年代大都市区（雅典，塞萨洛尼基）的快速发展，到中等城市和交通便利的农村地区更明显地出现了密度依赖的过程。在2000年代。在中间研究阶段（1971-2001年）发现了人口密度与密度无关的过程。