Better relaxing lockdown together Even during a pandemic, all countries—even islands—are dependent in one way or another on their neighbors. Without coordinated relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) among the most closely connected countries, it is difficult to envisage maintaining control of infectious viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Ruktanonchai et al. used mobility data from smartphones to estimate movements between administrative units across Europe before and after the implementation of NPIs for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Modeling disease dynamics under alternative scenarios of countries releasing NPIs, in particular stay-at-home orders, showed that if countries do not coordinate their NPIs when they relax lockdown, resurgence of disease occurs sooner. Coordination of on-off NPIs would significantly increase their effectiveness at reducing transmission across Europe. Science, this issue p. 1465 Coordination among countries in easing restrictions is key to preventing resurgent COVID-19 outbreaks and stopping community transmission. As rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission.

中文翻译：

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评估整个欧洲协调一致的 COVID-19 退出策略的影响

更好地共同放松封锁 即使在大流行期间，所有国家（甚至岛屿）都以某种方式依赖其邻国。如果联系最密切的国家之间不协调放松非药物干预措施 (NPI)，就很难想象维持对严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 等传染性病毒的控制。鲁克塔农柴等人。使用智能手机的移动数据来估计针对 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 实施 NPI 前后欧洲行政单位之间的移动情况。对各国发布 NPI（特别是居家令）的替代情景下的疾病动态进行建模表明，如果各国在放松封锁时不协调其 NPI，疾病就会更快卷土重来。断断续续的非营利机构的协调将大大提高其减少整个欧洲传播的有效性。科学，本期第 14 页。1465 各国之间协调放松限制是防止 COVID-19 疫情再度爆发和阻止社区传播的关键。由于社会疏远政策和封锁措施等非药物干预措施，欧洲各地 2019 年新型冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 病例率有所下降，各国需要指导如何放松限制，同时最大限度地降低疫情再度爆发的风险。我们使用流动性和病例数据来量化协调的退出策略如何延迟大陆复苏并限制 COVID-19 的社区传播。我们发现，如果关系密切、现有严格干预措施的国家过早结束干预措施，那么大陆流行病的死灰复燃可能会提前 5 周发生。此外，我们发现适当的协调可以大大提高消除整个欧洲社区传播的可能性。特别是，在整个欧洲同步间歇性封锁意味着需要一半的封锁期才能结束整个大陆的社区传播。