Environmental variability has a strong influence on marine fish stocks. Thus, management and harvest policies based on deterministic indicators, such as maximum sustainable yield (MSY), may be inappropriate facing such uncertainties. In this study, we investigate the long‐term behavior of a single‐species fishery, whose stock is harvested by several fleets and affected by variability in the recruitment. The dynamics of this population is modeled by a discrete‐time stochastic age‐structured model. In this context, we introduce the concepts of maximum expected, log expected, and harmonic expected sustainable yield, as biological reference points. We illustrate these concepts with a case study of the Patagonian toothfish fishery in Chile and Argentina. Via Monte‐Carlo simulations, we verify that high levels of variability have a negative effect on all these maximum expected reference points, which suggests the need to be more cautious when large levels of variability on recruitment impact the fishery. Our simulations show that the deterministic MSY may not be attained in the presence of environmental noise, and therefore its use may lead to a failure of management strategies or rebuilding plans.

中文翻译：

---

不确定因素在设计可持续和预防性渔业管理战略中的作用

环境的变化对海洋鱼类资源有很大的影响。因此，基于确定性指标（例如最大可持续产量（MSY））的管理和收获政策可能不适合面对此类不确定性。在这项研究中，我们调查了单一物种渔业的长期行为，该渔业的种群由数个船队捕捞，并受招聘变化的影响。该人口的动态是通过离散时间随机年龄结构模型来建模的。在这种情况下，我们介绍了最大期望值，对数期望值和谐波期望可持续产量的概念，作为生物学参考点。我们以智利和阿根廷的巴塔哥尼亚牙鱼捕捞业为例来说明这些概念。通过蒙特卡洛模拟，我们验证了高水平的可变性对所有这些最大预期参考点均具有负面影响，这表明当招聘中的大量可变性影响渔业时，需要更加谨慎。我们的模拟表明，在存在环境噪声的情况下可能无法获得确定的MSY，因此使用MSY可能会导致管理策略或重建计划失败。