Frequent drought is a critical limiting factor for regional agriculture development. Accurately evaluating regional agricultural drought risk contributes to raising disaster risk management and reducing drought disaster losses. This paper proposes a grey cloud clustering model based on panel data to assess the agricultural drought disaster risk of Henan province. The new model includes two parts. One component is indicator and time weights determination which uses the grey incidence analysis methods, the maximum deviation and maximum entropy principle, respectively. The other part is the construction of grey cloud possibility function which calculates the drought disaster risk grade. Then, the proposed model is applied for assessing the agricultural drought disaster risk of Henan Province at the regional scale, and the time scale selected is from 2012 to 2016. The agricultural drought disaster presents different spatial distribution in drought hazard, exposure, damage sensitivity and drought resistance capacity. The comprehensive risk evaluation results indicate that the drought risk in the most northern and southern regions of Henan Province is lower, while the western, mid-western and eastern regions have a higher risk. Compared with the traditional assessment models for disaster risk, the proposed model can recognize the random, fuzzy and grey uncertainties of the agricultural drought disaster system. Thus, it is a beneficial tool for drought disaster risk assessment and can help to make some suggestions for drought disaster mitigation.

经常干旱是区域农业发展的关键限制因素。准确评估区域农业干旱风险有助于提高灾害风险管理水平，减少干旱灾害损失。提出了基于面板数据的灰色云聚类模型，对河南省农业干旱灾害风险进行评估。新模型包括两个部分。一个组成部分是指标和时间权重的确定，分别使用灰色关联分析方法，最大偏差和最大熵原理。另一部分是灰云可能性函数的构建，该函数计算干旱灾害风险等级。然后，将该模型应用于区域规模的河南省农业干旱灾害风险评估，农业干旱灾害在干旱灾害，暴露，危害敏感性和抗旱能力方面表现出不同的空间分布。综合风险评估结果表明，河南省大部分北部和南部地区的干旱风险较低，而西部，中西部和东部地区的干旱风险较高。与传统的灾害风险评估模型相比，该模型可以识别农业干旱灾害系统的随机，模糊和灰色不确定性。因此，它是评估干旱灾害风险的有益工具，可以为减轻干旱灾害提供一些建议。破坏敏感性和抗旱能力。综合风险评估结果表明，河南省大部分北部和南部地区的干旱风险较低，而西部，中西部和东部地区的干旱风险较高。与传统的灾害风险评估模型相比，该模型可以识别农业干旱灾害系统的随机，模糊和灰色不确定性。因此，它是评估干旱灾害风险的有益工具，可以为减轻干旱灾害提供一些建议。破坏敏感性和抗旱能力。综合风险评估结果表明，河南省大部分北部和南部地区的干旱风险较低，而西部，中西部和东部地区的干旱风险较高。与传统的灾害风险评估模型相比，该模型可以识别农业干旱灾害系统的随机，模糊和灰色不确定性。因此，它是评估干旱灾害风险的有益工具，可以为减轻干旱灾害提供一些建议。与传统的灾害风险评估模型相比，该模型可以识别农业干旱灾害系统的随机，模糊和灰色不确定性。因此，它是评估干旱灾害风险的有益工具，可以为减轻干旱灾害提供一些建议。与传统的灾害风险评估模型相比，该模型可以识别农业干旱灾害系统的随机，模糊和灰色不确定性。因此，它是评估干旱灾害风险的有益工具，可以为减轻干旱灾害提供一些建议。