Abstract Forest managers and policymakers across the globe are continually exploring ways to better understand how various socio-economic conditions and shocks can influence timber supply. In this paper, we develop a statistical harvest choice model for the state of Maine, a historically important timber supply region in North America. Landowner-level timber harvest choices were estimated using a multinomial logit model of two products (sawlogs and pulplogs), under varying management intensities (partial harvest, clearcut), and ownership classifications (public, private, conservation) across varying market conditions. Results indicate that stumpage prices have a significant effect on forest landowners' harvest decisions, regardless of the ownership classification or harvest intensity. Timber supply is positive and inelastic with respect to stumpage price, with state-level own-price elasticities ranging from 0.27–0.31 for sawlogs and 0.43–0.73 for pulplogs, with elasticities increasing with harvest intensity. Simulations that increase the proportion of forest designated as private conservation estimated that doing so could reduce Maine's total timber supply by 2%, although the level of sawlog harvests could increase by 0.5% as conservation landowners supplement their non-timber objectives with higher value wood. Our approach to modeling the complex timber harvesting patterns across a diverse array of both private, public, and conservation owners can be leveraged to inform policies focused on sustainable timber flows. Furthermore, it indicates that increases in conservation forestland area does not necessarily lead to large reductions in timber harvests, particularly in a state like Maine where most conservation land is still managed as working forest.

中文翻译：

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美国缅因州保护管理新时代和不断变化的市场中的林地所有者采伐决策

摘要 全球的森林管理者和政策制定者正在不断探索更好地了解各种社会经济条件和冲击如何影响木材供应的方法。在本文中，我们为缅因州开发了一个统计采伐选择模型，缅因州是北美历史上重要的木材供应地区。土地所有者层面的木材采伐选择是使用两种产品（锯木和纸浆原木）的多项 logit 模型估算的，在不同的市场条件下，在不同的管理强度（部分采伐、砍伐）和所有权分类（公共、私人、保护）下。结果表明，无论所有权分类或采伐强度如何，立木价格对林地所有者的采伐决定都有显着影响。木材供应相对于立木价格而言是正的且缺乏弹性，州级自有价格弹性范围为锯木 0.27-0.31 和纸浆原木 0.43-0.73，弹性随收获强度增加。增加指定为私人保护的森林比例的模拟估计，这样做会使缅因州的木材总供应量减少 2%，尽管由于保护土地所有者用更高价值的木材补充其非木材目标，锯木的收获水平可能会增加 0.5%。我们对各种私人、公共和保护所有者的复杂木材采伐模式进行建模的方法可用于为专注于可持续木材流动的政策提供信息。此外，