An engineering change (EC) is an alteration made to a system that has been released following a system design process. EC propagation is a series of ECs occurring due to dependencies among components of a product. ECs can consume up to 50% of the overall engineering efforts during the development of a complex system. Therefore, EC propagation prediction received considerable attention in past decades as the product development industries started to suffer from the negative impacts of change propagation. This paper evaluates the current approaches to EC propagation prediction and presents a dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) approach to estimate change propagation risk (CPR) as well as a novel approach to estimate EC durations. Literature research shows that although some studies have used design structure matrices to estimate CPR and the total redesign duration (TRD) due to change propagation, an approach that allows iteration while accounting for the conjunction of all impacts has not been explored. This paper aims to fill the gaps for calculating CPR using DBN and evaluating change propagation paths from a Split-and task outcome logic, which accounts for the conjunction of all component relationships. This paper compares the proposed method results with the existing CPR and engineering change duration estimation methods using a real-world dataset from a U.S. Navy shipbuilding program. The results indicate that the CPR can be calculated using the proposed method without the shortcomings of the existing method and the accuracy for estimating engineering change durations is increased.

中文翻译：

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估计工程变更传播风险和持续时间的贝叶斯网络方法

工程变更 (EC) 是对按照系统设计流程发布的系统所做的更改。EC 传播是由于产品组件之间的依赖关系而发生的一系列 EC。在复杂系统的开发过程中，EC 最多可以消耗 50% 的整体工程工作。因此，随着产品开发行业开始遭受变化传播的负面影响，EC 传播预测在过去几十年中受到了相当大的关注。本文评估了当前的 EC 传播预测方法，并提出了一种动态贝叶斯网络 (DBN) 方法来估计变化传播风险 (CPR)，以及一种估计 EC 持续时间的新方法。文献研究表明，尽管一些研究已经使用设计结构矩阵来估计 CPR 和由于更改传播而导致的总重新设计持续时间 (TRD)，但尚未探索一种允许迭代同时考虑所有影响的联合的方法。本文旨在填补使用 DBN 计算 CPR 和从拆分和任务结果逻辑评估变更传播路径的空白，该逻辑考虑了所有组件关系的连接。本文使用来自美国海军造船计划的真实世界数据集，将所提出的方法结果与现有的 CPR 和工程变更持续时间估计方法进行了比较。