ABSTRACT

To foster poverty reduction in drought-prone Araucanía, the Chilean Irrigation Commission is planning an important expansion of irrigated areas. Scenarios incorporating climate change (2030–2059) were simulated for a pilot basin using the WEAP water allocation model, showing that larger irrigated areas, coupled with higher temperatures and less precipitation, are likely to cause severe seasonal water scarcity. As decision support for the planning of effective measures to increase drought resilience, we modelled the construction of two upstream reservoirs combined with higher irrigation efficiency. We find that unmet water demand can be reduced by up to 97.7% by these measures.

摘要

为了促进干旱多发的阿劳卡尼亚的减贫，智利灌溉委员会正在计划大规模扩大灌溉面积。使用 WEAP 水资源分配模型为试点流域模拟了包含气候变化（2030-2059 年）的情景，表明更大的灌溉面积，加上更高的温度和更少的降水，可能会导致严重的季节性缺水。作为规划有效措施以提高抗旱能力的决策支持，我们模拟了两个上游水库的建设，并结合了更高的灌溉效率。我们发现，通过这些措施，未满足的用水需求最多可以减少 97.7%。