Reconstruction of past backyard skating seasons in the Original Six NHL cities from citizen science data,The Canadian Geographer

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Reconstruction of past backyard skating seasons in the Original Six NHL cities from citizen science data
The Canadian Geographer ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-16 , DOI: 10.1111/cag.12640
Karim Malik ₁ , Robert McLeman ₁ , Colin Robertson ₁ , Haydn Lawrence ₂

Affiliation

This study conducted linear and change‐point analyses of historical trends since 1942 in the length and number of days suitable for skating on backyard rinks in the “Original Six” National Hockey League cities of Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, New York, and Toronto. Analysis is based on the relationship between ambient air temperatures and the probability of skating, using thresholds identified through the RinkWatch citizen science project. In all cities, coefficient estimates suggest the number of high‐probability skating days per winter is declining, with easternmost cities displaying notable declines and growing inter‐annual variability in skating days in recent decades. Linear analysis shows a statistically significant decline in Toronto, with a step‐change emerging in 1980, after which there is on average one‐third fewer skating days compared with preceding decades. The outdoor skating season trends towards later start dates in Boston, Montreal, New York, and Toronto. Future monitoring of outdoor rinks provides an opportunity for engaging the public in identification of winter warming trends that might otherwise be imperceptible, and for raising awareness of the impacts of climate change.

中文翻译：

从公民科学数据重建原始六个NHL城市过去的后院轮滑季节

这项研究对自1942年以来的历史趋势进行了线性和变化点分析，分析了在波士顿，芝加哥，底特律，蒙特利尔，纽约和纽约的“原始六人”国家曲棍球联盟城市中适合在后院溜冰场滑冰的时间和长度。多伦多。使用RinkWatch公民科学项目确定的阈值，基于环境空气温度和滑冰概率之间的关系进行分析。在所有城市中，系数估计表明每个冬季的高概率滑冰天数正在减少，最近几十年来，最东部的城市滑冰天数显示出明显的下降和年际变化。线性分析显示，多伦多的统计数字明显下降，1980年出现了阶跃变化，之后，滑冰天数与之前的几十年相比平均减少了三分之一。户外溜冰季节趋向于以后在波士顿，蒙特利尔，纽约和多伦多的开始日期。未来对室外溜冰场的监控将提供一个机会，让公众参与确定冬季变暖趋势（否则可能无法察觉），并提高人们对气候变化影响的认识。

更新日期：2020-07-16

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