Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a renewable electricity technology with lower carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) impacts compared to fossil electricity, making it a technology of interest with respect to combatting global climate change. This paper combines agent‐based modeling (ABM) with life cycle assessment (LCA) to simulate rooftop solar PV adoption in Los Angeles (LA) County from 2018–2050 and generate CO₂e impact data at the societal level to compare PV and grid electricity. With respect to solar PV panels, consumer adoption is the “pull” that moves the system and corresponding life cycle CO₂e impacts forward. ABM is used to evaluate the impact of policies and evolutions in technology regarding the adoption of solar PV. Life cycle assessment is used to quantify the life cycle CO₂e impacts of solar PV (including raw materials, manufacturing, and use). The results show that scenarios that increase PV adoption also increase the CO₂e impacts from solar PV use in the short term, due to the raw materials and manufacturing portions of the life cycle. Yet, in the long term, adoption of solar PV may provide CO₂e impact savings from offsetting grid electricity (although this is dependent on the carbon intensity of the electricity sources). The CO₂e impacts of solar panels are dominated by the raw materials and manufacturing phases on a product level basis, but the use phase contributes to the majority of environmental impact savings from an adoption and societal‐level perspective. Future work may apply the methodology to other locations in the United States to evaluate if solar panels are an advantageous electricity source compared to the environmental impacts of the electricity grid. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:1008–1018. © 2020 SETAC

中文翻译：

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住宅用电量的全球变暖影响：加利福尼亚州洛杉矶县基于代理的屋顶太阳能电池板采用建模。

太阳能光伏（PV）是一种可再生电力技术，与化石电力相比，其二氧化碳当量（CO ₂ e）的影响更低，这使其成为应对全球气候变化的重要技术。本文将基于代理的建模（ABM）与生命周期评估（LCA）结合起来，模拟了2018-2050年洛杉矶（LA）县采用屋顶太阳能光伏发电的情况，并生成了社会层面的CO ₂ e影响数据，以比较光伏发电和电网电力。对于太阳能光伏电池板，消费者的接受是推动系统和相应生命周期CO ₂的“拉动”e影响向前。ABM用于评估政策和技术进步对采用太阳能光伏发电的影响。生命周期评估用于量化太阳能光伏对生命周期CO ₂ e的影响（包括原材料，制造和使用）。结果表明，由于生命周期中的原材料和制造环节，短期内提高光伏采用率的情景也会增加太阳能光伏使用对CO ₂ e的影响。然而，从长远来看，采用太阳能光伏发电可通过抵消电网电力来节省CO ₂ e的影响（尽管这取决于电源的碳强度）。一氧化碳₂太阳能电池板的影响主要取决于产品级别的原材料和制造阶段，但从采用和社会层面的角度来看，使用阶段可为大多数环境影响节省做出贡献。未来的工作可能会将这种方法应用于美国的其他地区，以评估太阳能电池板与电网的环境影响相比是否是一种有利的电源。Integr环境评估管理2020； 16：1008-1018。©2020 SETAC