Phase alignment (synchronization) is a generalized property of interacting oscillators. If such interactions apply to earthquakes, they should manifest as time‐dependent variations in earthquake productivity organized according to a characteristic elastic loading period. Defining this period as renewal interval, the time required to accumulate the elastic potential energy released in a rupture, gives a consistent scaling property that can be used to search for temporal organization. We test for the expected structure in earthquake productivity using three different statistical tools optimized for different temporal sensitivities: Schuster spectra for events with short renewal intervals (0–25 years), Fourier power spectra for events with short and intermediate renewal intervals (0–100 years), and topological data analysis (TDA) for events with long renewal intervals (>100 years). All three indicate that earthquakes are organized in time according to renewal interval. Accounting for such unsteady temporal organization may improve forecasting skill by providing time‐dependent event probabilities.

中文翻译：

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全球地震目录中的同步证据

相位对齐（同步）是相互作用的振荡器的普遍属性。如果这种相互作用适用于地震，则它们应表现为根据特征弹性加载周期组织的，随时间变化的地震生产力。将这段时间定义为更新间隔，即累积破裂中释放的弹性势能所需的时间，可以提供一致的缩放属性，可用于搜索时间结构。我们使用针对不同时间敏感性优化的三种不同统计工具，对地震生产力的预期结构进行了测试：针对较短更新间隔（0–25年）的事件的舒斯特谱，针对较短和中间更新间隔（0–100）的事件的傅立叶功率谱年份），以及具有较长更新间隔（> 100年）的事件的拓扑数据分析（TDA）。这三者均表明地震是根据更新间隔及时组织的。通过提供时间相关的事件概率，应对这种不稳定的时间组织可能会提高预测技能。