Abstract This paper presents the first fully possibilistic method for real option valuation of investment projects, a new possibilistic variant of the fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation. The new variant is derived by using the Luukka-Stoklasa-Collan transformation and is proven to be consistent with financial theory. The new variant is comparatively analyzed with the original method and the previously presented probabilistic variant. Fast computation formulae for the new variant in all use-cases in the triangular context are presented and complete fast computation formulae also for the previously presented probabilistic variant of the method are presented for the first time. The use of the new variant is illustrated with a set of numerical examples including examples of Research and Development investment analysis.

中文翻译：

---

实物期权估值的可能性模糊支付方法在研发投资分析中的应用

摘要 本文提出了第一个用于投资项目实物期权估值的完全可能性方法，一种新的实物期权估值模糊支付方法的可能性变体。新变体是通过使用 Luukka-Stoklasa-Collan 变换推导出来的，并被证明与金融理论一致。新变体与原始方法和先前提出的概率变体进行了比较分析。介绍了三角形上下文中所有用例中新变体的快速计算公式，并首次介绍了之前介绍的方法概率变体的完整快速计算公式。使用一组数值示例说明了新变体的使用，其中包括研发投资分析的示例。