Anthropogenic climate change is expected to strengthen upwelling events worldwide, driven by an increase of upwelling-favorable winds. However, Earth System Models (ESM) tend to underestimate regional processes due to their coarse grid resolution, which can lead to local biases. We use a high-resolution ocean model (\({1/12}^{\circ }\)) forced by results from the Max-Planck-Institute-ESM to analyze the impact of the RCP8.5 emission scenario on the upwelling of South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) in the South Brazil Bight (SBB). We find a stronger Ekman forcing and a higher spread of SACW over the shelf, but this does not translate into higher vertical velocities at the bottom of the mixed-layer in the end of the century. The increased winds’ effect is essentially balanced by an increase in water column stability due to the surface warming. This is particularly important during austral summer, when this process tends to weaken the upwelling. Vertical velocities decrease significantly along the shelf break. Here, the upwelling regime is governed by the Brazil Current (BC) and slight changes in transport induce large responses in upwelling strength. The consequences are increased sea surface temperatures over most of the shelf, although mitigated by the SACW upwelling and kept below global projections. However, temperatures decrease along Cabo Frio. In this region, shelf break upwelling dominates and is enhanced by a local increase in the BC transport. This highlights the importance of regional processes and, more specifically, of changes in the BC transport for the upwelling in the SBB.

在上升气流有利的风的推动下，人为的气候变化预计将加强全球上升气流的活动。但是，由于其粗略的网格分辨率，地球系统模型（ESM）往往低估了区域过程，这可能导致局部偏差。我们使用高分辨率海洋模型（\（{1/12} ^ {\ circ} \））是由Max-Planck-Institute-ESM的结果所强制，以分析RCP8.5排放情景对巴西南部海岸线（SBB）的南大西洋中央水（SACW）上升的影响。我们发现更强的Ekman强迫和SACW在架子上的散布更大，但这并不能在本世纪末转化为混合层底部更高的垂直速度。由于表面变暖，增加的风的作用基本上可以通过增加水柱的稳定性来平衡。在南方夏季，这一过程往往会减弱上升流，这尤其重要。垂直速度沿架子断裂明显降低。在这里，上升流体制受巴西洋流（BC）的支配，运输过程中的微小变化会引起上升流强度的较大响应。后果是尽管架子上的SACW上升缓解了海平面温度升高的趋势，但仍使海平面温度保持在全球预测范围之下，但结果却导致了大部分海平面温度的升高。但是，沿卡波弗里奥（Cabo Frio）的温度下降。在该地区，陆架破裂上升流占主导地位，并因BC运输量的局部增加而增强。这凸显了区域进程的重要性，更具体地说，对于SBB的上升流来说，BC运输的变化非常重要。