ABSTRACT This paper proposes the use of simulation modelling to explore the effect of conservation strategies on the preservation of paper collections. Agent-based simulation was chosen as the simulation approach in order to capture the individual characteristics of the collections, their size, and the values of pH and degree of polymerisation (DP) for individual items. This approach enabled the simulation of the chemical degradation of different types of collections during their lifetime and under different preservation scenarios. We conducted a series of computational experiments on three types of collections, acidic, modern, and mixed, to explore the effect of slightly lowering the temperature and relative humidity in the repositories, the deacidification of part of the collection at different rates, and the delay in making the decision to start a deacidification treatment. The results indicated that a small change, lowering the storage conditions from 18°C to 16°C and from 50% to 40% RH, can protect up to 30% of the collection from reaching the critical DP of 300 within a time horizon of 500 years. On the other hand, to obtain similar results through deacidification, 45% of the mixed collection and 70% of the acidic collection should be deacidified within a period of 100 years. The experiments also indicated that better results are obtained when the priorities for deacidification are acidic records with a pH value below 5. This study shows that modelling the heterogeneity of the collections can support preservation management, particularly if the concern is not the preservation of a part of the collection but the collection as a whole.

中文翻译：

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纸质藏品保存管理策略比较

摘要 本文提出使用模拟建模来探索保护策略对纸质收藏品的保护的影响。选择基于代理的模拟作为模拟方法，以捕捉集合的个体特征、它们的大小以及单个项目的 pH 值和聚合度 (DP)。这种方法能够模拟不同类型收藏品在其生命周期内和不同保存场景下的化学降解。我们对酸性、现代和混合三种类型的馆藏进行了一系列计算实验，以探索略微降低知识库中温度和相对湿度的效果，以不同速率对部分馆藏进行脱酸，以及延迟做出开始脱酸处理的决定。结果表明，将储存条件从 18°C 降低到 16°C 并将相对湿度从 50% 降低到 40% 的微小变化，可以保护多达 30% 的集合在 300 的时间范围内不达到 300 的临界 DP 500 年。另一方面，为了通过脱酸获得类似的结果，45%的混合收集和70%的酸性收集应该在100年内脱酸。实验还表明，当脱酸的优先事项是 pH 值低于 5 的酸性记录时，可以获得更好的结果。这项研究表明，对藏品的异质性进行建模可以支持保存管理，特别是如果关注的不是部分的保存的集合，但集合作为一个整体。