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Demographic back‐casting reveals that subtle dimensions of climate change have strong effects on population viability
Journal of Ecology ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-15 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13471 Kevin Czachura 1 , Tom E. X. Miller 1
中文翻译：
人口统计学预测显示，气候变化的微妙影响对人口生存能力产生重大影响
更新日期：2020-07-15
Journal of Ecology ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-15 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13471 Kevin Czachura 1 , Tom E. X. Miller 1
Affiliation
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- The effects of climate change on population viability reflect the net influence of potentially diverse responses of individual‐level demographic processes (growth, survival, regeneration) to multiple components of climate. Articulating climate–demography connections can facilitate forecasts of responses to future climate change as well as back‐casts that may reveal how populations responded to historical climate change.
- We studied climate–demography relationships in the cactus Cyclindriopuntia imbricata; previous work indicated that our focal population has high abundance but a negative population growth rate, where deaths exceed births, suggesting that it persists under extinction debt. We parameterized a climate‐dependent integral projection model with data from a 14‐year field study, then back‐casted expected population growth rates since 1900 to test the hypothesis that recent climate change has driven this population into extinction debt.
- We found clear patterns of climate change in our central New Mexico study region but, contrary to our hypothesis, C. imbricata has most likely benefitted from recent climate change and is on track to reach replacement‐level population growth within 37 years, or sooner if climate change accelerates. Furthermore, the strongest feature of climate change (a trend towards years that are overall warmer and drier, captured by the first principal component of inter‐annual variation) was not the main driver of population responses. Instead, temporal trends in population growth were dominated by more subtle, seasonal climatic factors with relatively weak signals of recent change (wetter and milder cool seasons, captured by the second and third principal components).
- Synthesis. Our results highlight the challenges of back‐casting or forecasting population dynamics under climate change, since the most apparent features of climate change may not be the most important drivers of ecological responses. Environmentally explicit demographic models can help meet this challenge, but they must consider the magnitudes of different aspects of climate change alongside the magnitudes of demographic responses to those changes.
中文翻译：
人口统计学预测显示，气候变化的微妙影响对人口生存能力产生重大影响
- 气候变化对人口生存力的影响反映了个人层面的人口统计学过程（增长，生存，再生）对气候多个组成部分的潜在多样化响应的净影响。明确指出气候与人口之间的联系可以促进对未来气候变化的响应预测，以及可以揭示人口如何应对历史气候变化的预测。
- 我们研究了仙人掌Cyclindriopuntia imbricata中的气候-人口统计学关系；先前的工作表明，我们的重点人群数量很高，但人口增长率为负值，死亡人数超过了出生人数，这表明它在灭绝债务的影响下仍然存在。我们使用一项为期14年的实地研究数据对气候依赖的整体投影模型进行了参数化，然后回溯了1900年以来的预期人口增长率，以检验以下假设：近期气候变化已使这一人口陷入灭绝。
- 我们在新墨西哥州中部研究区发现了清晰的气候变化模式，但是与我们的假设相反，棉衣梭菌很可能已从最近的气候变化中受益，并有望在37年内达到替代水平的人口增长，如果能更快地气候变化加速。此外，气候变化的最强特征（由年际变化的第一个主要组成部分反映的是总体变暖和变干的年份趋势）不是人口反应的主要驱动力。取而代之的是，人口增长的时间趋势主要由更微妙的季节性气候因素所主导，而近期变化的信号相对较弱（凉爽的季节更为温和，由第二和第三主成分捕获）。
- 综合。由于气候变化的最明显特征可能不是生态反应的最重要驱动力，因此我们的结果突出了在气候变化下进行人口动态预测或预测的挑战。明确环境的人口模型可以帮助应对这一挑战，但他们必须考虑气候变化各个方面的强度以及人口对这些变化的反应强度。
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