Abstract Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCCs) have been a cause of great concern for socio-environmental sustainability. Applied study in this field should take into account the history of the interaction between man and nature, and the effect on the landscape that this dynamic projects. This paper’s objective is to assess LUCCs with regard to the effect of a nature conservation policy and correlate such changes with the practice of shifting cultivation. For that, historical aerial photos of the study site (a protected area located in Sao Paulo, Brazil) were analyzed and Markov and Cellular Automata models were built and compared to simulate different scenarios, including a counterfactual one. The results showed that the policy was important to stop pressures against nature conservation and that there is a lack of correlation between shifting cultivation and reducing forest cover, highlighting the fact that the ban on shifting cultivation, justified by nature conservation, can be overestimated.

中文翻译：

---

土地利用和覆盖模型作为分析自然保护政策的工具——Juréia-Itatins 的案例研究

摘要 土地利用和覆盖变化 (LUCC) 一直是社会环境可持续性的一个重要问题。该领域的应用研究应考虑人与自然相互作用的历史，以及这种动态对景观的影响。本文的目的是评估 LUCC 对自然保护政策的影响，并将此类变化与轮垦实践联系起来。为此，对研究地点（位于巴西圣保罗的保护区）的历史航拍照片进行了分析，并建立了马尔可夫和元胞自动机模型并进行了比较，以模拟不同的场景，包括一个反事实的场景。