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Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene
Earth-Science Reviews ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286
Armand Hernández , Celia Martin-Puertas , Paola Moffa-Sánchez , Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro , Pablo Ortega , Simon Blockley , Kim M. Cobb , Laia Comas-Bru , Santiago Giralt , Hugues Goosse , Jürg Luterbacher , Belen Martrat , Raimund Muscheler , Andrew Parnell , Sergi Pla-Rabes , Jesper Sjolte , Adam A. Scaife , Didier Swingedouw , Erika Wise , Guobao Xu

Abstract Modes of climate variability affect global and regional climates on different spatio-temporal scales, and they have important impacts on human activities and ecosystems. As these modes are a useful tool for simplifying the understanding of the climate system, it is crucial that we gain improved knowledge of their long-term past evolution and interactions over time to contextualise their present and future behaviour. We review the literature focused on proxy-based reconstructions of modes of climate variability during the Holocene (i.e., the last 11.7 thousand years) with a special emphasis on i) proxy-based reconstruction methods; ii) available proxy-based reconstructions of the main modes of variability, i.e., El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole; iii) major interactions between these modes; and iv) external forcing mechanisms related to the evolution of these modes. This review shows that modes of variability can be reconstructed using proxy-based records from a wide range of natural archives, but these reconstructions are scarce beyond the last millennium, partly due to the lack of robust chronologies with reduced dating uncertainties, technical issues related to proxy calibration, and difficulty elucidating their stationary impact (or not) on regional climates over time. While for each mode the available reconstructions tend to agree at mutidecadal timescales, they show notable disagreement on shorter timescales beyond the instrumental period. The reviewed evidence suggests that the intrinsic variability of modes can be modulated by external forcing, such as orbital, solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic forcing. The review also highlights some modes experience higher variability over the instrumental period, which is partly ascribed to anthropogenic forcing. These features stress the paramount importance of further studying their past variations using long climate-proxy records for the progress of climate science.

中文翻译:

气候变率模式:全新世基于代理的重建的综合和审查

摘要 气候变率模式在不同时空尺度上影响全球和区域气候,对人类活动和生态系统产生重要影响。由于这些模式是简化对气候系统理解的有用工具,因此我们必须更好地了解它们过去的长期演变和相互作用,以便将它们现在和未来的行为背景化。我们回顾了关于全新世(即过去 11700 年)气候变率模式基于代理重建的文献,特别强调 i) 基于代理的重建方法;ii) 主要变率模式的可用代理重建,即厄尔尼诺南方涛动、太平洋年代际变率、大西洋多年代际变率、北大西洋涛动,南环模和印度洋偶极子;iii) 这些模式之间的主要相互作用;iv) 与这些模式演化相关的外部强迫机制。这篇综述表明,可以使用来自各种自然档案的基于代理的记录来重建变异模式,但这些重建在过去千年之后很少见,部分原因是缺乏可靠的年表,减少了年代学的不确定性,与相关的技术问题代理校准,以及难以阐明它们随时间推移对区域气候的静态影响(或不影响)。虽然对于每种模式,可用的重建倾向于在跨年代的时间尺度上达成一致,但它们在工具时期之后的较短时间尺度上表现出明显的分歧。审查的证据表明,模式的内在变化可以通过外部强迫进行调节,例如轨道、太阳、火山和人为强迫。审查还强调了一些模式在仪器期间经历了更高的可变性,这部分归因于人为强迫。这些特征强调了使用长期气候代理记录进一步研究它们过去的变化对气候科学进步的重要性。
更新日期:2020-10-01
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