Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late-century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low—B1, moderate—A1B, and high—A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

中文翻译：

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评估美国本土军事设施对快速气候变化导致的潜在生物群落变化的脆弱性

气候变化对国防部 (DoD) 设施的影响将增加对洪水、干旱、改变的火势和入侵物种的脆弱性，从而挑战军事任务和自然资源管理工作。我们使用霍尔德里奇生命区系统根据美国本土的当前气候开发了生物群落分类，以评估国防部土地上的潜在变化。我们通过与北美东部现有生态区域分类、主要森林类型的分布和树种的比较来验证分类。我们使用全球气候模型的集合，在三种温室气体排放情景（低 - B1、中等 - A1B 和高 - A2）下预测了本世纪中后期时间段的未来生命区。评估安装漏洞 (n = 529)，我们使用空间聚类分析来分析生物群落的变化，以表征区域间的变化，并为随后的景观水平分析确定了具有代表性的设施。尽管预计年平均温度会升高，但位于东北部、湖州和大平原西部的设施可能会经历最大比例的温度升高。因此，这些设施中的森林和草原社区设法支持广泛的培训，环境目标可能会受到扰动机制、热量和水分压力变化的不利影响。然而，预计东北部和湖州的降水量会增加，从而减轻温度升高对生物群落的一些影响。鉴于不同生态区对气候变化的反应不确定，