当前位置: X-MOL 学术Clim. Dyn. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Investigating teleconnection patterns associated with the rainy season of the northern northeast Brazil using a hidden Markov model
Climate Dynamics ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-15 , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05374-4
Isamara de Mendonça Silva , Deusdedit Monteiro Medeiros , Michel d. S. Mesquita

The interannual variability of the northern northeast Brazil (NNB) rainfall is directly affected by the dynamics of large-scale systems through atmospheric circulation. In this context, a hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to describe the daily rainfall occurrence and intensity at four meteorological stations of the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza (MRF) in the NNB, and the global teleconnection patterns that influence precipitation regimes during the rainy season (February, March, April and May) from 1975 to 2013. An HMM with 4 states was set up and interpreted as: very rainy (1), rainy (2), less rainy (3), and dry (4) weather conditions. They agree satisfactorily with the interannual variability of the rainy season in this region. State 2 is the only one which showed a statistical trend, indicating a probable decrease of precipitation occurrence in the rainy season. Results also show that the meteorological weather associated with both states 2 and 4 is strongly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic tripole and are intrinsically conditioned to the large-scale atmospheric teleconnections of the Northern Hemisphere. All those mechanisms modulate the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward (state 2) or northward (state 4), thus affecting the precipitation occurrence over the NNB. State 1 is distinguished by the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and the ITCZ displacement further south, while state 3 is identified by the absence of teleconnection patterns.



中文翻译:

使用隐马尔可夫模型研究与巴西东北部北部雨季相关的遥相关模式

巴西东北部(NNB)降水的年际变化直接受大气环流影响的大型系统动力学的影响。在这种情况下,使用隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)来描述NNB福塔雷萨大都会区(MRF)四个气象站的每日降雨发生和强度,以及影响降雨期间降水状况的全球遥相关模式1975年至2013年的一个季节(2月,3月,4月和5月)。建立了具有4个州的HMM,并将其解释为:多雨(1),多雨(2),少雨(3)和干燥(4)天气条件。他们满意地同意该地区雨季的年际变化。状态2是唯一显示出统计趋势的国家,表明在雨季降水减少。结果还表明,与状态2和状态4有关的气象天气与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO),北大西洋三极管密切相关,并且固有地受制于北半球的大规模大气遥相关。所有这些机制都调节了热带辐合带(ITCZ)向南(状态2)或向北(状态4)的移动,从而影响了NNB上的降水发生。状态1通过大西洋子午线模式(AMM)和ITCZ偏南的影响来区分,而状态3通过不存在遥距模式来识别。结果还表明,与状态2和状态4有关的气象天气与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO),北大西洋三极管密切相关,并且固有地受制于北半球的大规模大气遥相关。所有这些机制都调节了热带辐合带(ITCZ)向南(状态2)或向北(状态4)的移动,从而影响了NNB上的降水发生。状态1通过大西洋子午线模式(AMM)和ITCZ偏南的影响来区分,而状态3通过不存在遥距模式来识别。结果还表明,与状态2和状态4有关的气象天气与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO),北大西洋三极管密切相关,并且固有地受制于北半球的大规模大气遥相关。所有这些机制都调节了热带辐合带(ITCZ)向南(状态2)或向北(状态4)的移动,从而影响了NNB上的降水发生。状态1通过大西洋子午线模式(AMM)和ITCZ偏南的影响来区分,而状态3通过不存在遥距模式来识别。所有这些机制都调节了热带辐合带(ITCZ)向南(状态2)或向北(状态4)的移动,从而影响了NNB上降水的发生。状态1通过大西洋子午线模式(AMM)和ITCZ偏南的影响来区分,而状态3通过不存在遥距模式来识别。所有这些机制都调节了热带辐合带(ITCZ)向南(状态2)或向北(状态4)的移动,从而影响了NNB上的降水发生。状态1通过大西洋子午线模式(AMM)和ITCZ偏南的影响来区分,而状态3通过不存在遥距模式来识别。

更新日期:2020-07-15
down
wechat
bug