Greenhouse gas emissions originating from the built environment play a significant role towards climate change. Carefully planning the future of the building sector is key to mitigating these emissions. Addressing this problem by using a predictive approach may miss possible futures that cannot be anticipated. Using explorative scenarios to perform futures analysis helps widen the range of futures taken into account, which minimises this risk. Tools that use scenarios to help study the resilience of sustainable solutions for the UK urban environment are already available. However, they do not facilitate in-depth analysis of future household energy demand. This paper considers how one such tool, ‘Designing Resilient Cities’ (DRC), could be modified appropriately. It includes (a) a series of indicators representing factors affecting the energy demand in dwellings and (b) their characteristics for each scenario to complement the narratives in DRC. As a case study to validate these additions, the resilience of a recommendation to decrease domestic electricity consumption is evaluated.

中文翻译：

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调整期货情景以研究英国家庭能源需求

来自建筑环境的温室气体排放对气候变化起着重要作用。认真规划建筑行业的未来，是减少这些排放的关键。通过使用预测性方法解决此问题可能会错过无法预期的未来。使用探索性场景进行期货分析有助于扩大考虑的期货范围，从而最大程度地降低这种风险。已经有使用场景的工具来帮助研究英国城市环境可持续解决方案的弹性。但是，它们不能促进对未来家庭能源需求的深入分析。本文考虑了如何适当修改“设计抗灾城市”（DRC）这样的工具。它包括（一）一系列指标，这些指标代表影响住宅能源需求的因素，以及（b）每种情况的特征，以补充刚果民主共和国的叙述。作为验证这些增加的案例研究，评估了减少家庭用电量的建议的弹性。