We examine the relationships between electoral socio-demographic characteristics and two-party preference in the six Australian federal elections held between 2001 to 2016. Socio-demographic information is derived from the Australian Census, which occurs every five years. Since a Census is not directly available for each election, spatio-temporal imputation is employed to estimate Census data for the electorates at the time of each election. This accounts for both spatial and temporal changes in electoral characteristics between Censuses. To capture any spatial heterogeneity, a spatial error model is estimated for each election, which incorporates a spatially structured random effect vector that can be thought of as the unobserved political climate in each electorate. Over time, the impact of most socio-demographic characteristics that affect electoral two-party preference do not vary, with industry of work, incomes, household mobility and de facto relationships having strong effects in each of the six elections. Education and unemployment are amongst those that have varying effects. It is also found that between 2004 and 2013, the spatial effect was insignificant, meaning that electorates voted effectively independently. All data featured in this study has been contributed to the eechidna R package (available on CRAN).

中文翻译：

---

澳大利亚联邦选举中两党优先选票的空间建模：2001-2016

我们研究了 2001 年至 2016 年举行的六次澳大利亚联邦选举中选举社会人口特征与两党偏好之间的关系。社会人口统计信息来自澳大利亚人口普查，该人口普查每五年进行一次。由于每次选举都不能直接获得人口普查，因此使用时空插补来估计每次选举时选民的人口普查数据。这说明了人口普查之间选举特征的空间和时间变化。为了捕捉任何空间异质性，每个选举都会估计一个空间误差模型，其中包含一个空间结构的随机效应向量，可以将其视为每个选民未观察到的政治气候。随着时间的推移，影响选举两党偏好的大多数社会人口特征的影响没有变化，工作行业、收入、家庭流动性和事实上的关系在六次选举中的每一次选举中都有很大影响。教育和失业是具有不同影响的因素之一。还发现，在 2004 年至 2013 年之间，空间效应不显着，意味着选民有效地独立投票。本研究中的所有数据均已贡献给 eechidna R 包（可在 CRAN 上获得）。空间效应是微不足道的，这意味着选民可以有效地独立投票。本研究中的所有数据均已贡献给 eechidna R 包（可在 CRAN 上获得）。空间效应是微不足道的，这意味着选民可以有效地独立投票。本研究中的所有数据均已贡献给 eechidna R 包（可在 CRAN 上获得）。