Disastrous events have been drastically increasing – both in frequency and destructive capacity – over the past few years. While advance-notice events have received a great deal of attention in the literature of disaster management, not much attention so far has been given to the no-notice events mainly because of the scarcity of data. As an attempt to address this critical gap, the current study proposes a disaggregate evacuation demand framework to understand evacuees’ travel behavior in case of no-notice emergency events. The proposed framework comprises four main steps of evacuation decision, evacuation planning, tour formation, and activity schedule update. This article is dedicated to the introduction of the framework structure and elaboration on the tour formation step. In this step, we first estimate the total number of intermediate stops, travel time, and distance of the evacuation tours for those who decide to evacuate through a joint modeling structure and then, determine the type of each intermediate stop (if any). It is found that a broad range of factors including evacuees’ demographic profiles, built-environment attributes, and characteristics of the disastrous event plays a significant role in people’s evacuation behavior during no-notice emergency events. The findings of this study can assist responsible agencies in understanding evacuees’ complex behavior, and consequently, in devising effective strategies to alleviate economic damages and casualties resulted by such events.

在过去几年中，灾难性事件的发生频率和破坏能力都急剧增加。尽管预告事件在灾难管理文献中受到了广泛的关注，但是到目前为止，对未预告事件的关注并不多，主要是因为数据匮乏。为了解决这一严重差距，当前的研究提出了一个分类疏散需求框架，以了解在未通知紧急事件的情况下疏散人员的出行行为。拟议的框架包括疏散决策，疏散计划，行程安排和活动时间表更新四个主要步骤。本文致力于介绍框架结构，并详细介绍旅行团建设步骤。在此步骤中，我们首先估算中间停靠点的总数，那些决定通过联合建模结构进行疏散然后确定每个中间停靠点（如果有）的人员的旅行时间和疏散行程的距离。结果发现，包括疏散人员的人口统计资料，建筑环境属性以及灾难性事件的特征在内的各种因素在无人注意的紧急事件中对人们的疏散行为起着重要作用。这项研究的发现可以帮助负责机构了解被疏散者的复杂行为，从而设计出有效的策略来减轻此类事件造成的经济损失和人员伤亡。结果发现，包括疏散人员的人口统计资料，建筑环境属性以及灾难性事件的特征在内的各种因素在无人注意的紧急事件中对人们的疏散行为起着重要作用。这项研究的发现可以帮助负责机构了解被疏散者的复杂行为，从而设计出有效的策略来减轻此类事件造成的经济损失和人员伤亡。发现疏散人员的人口概况，建筑环境属性以及灾难性事件的特征等多种因素在无人注意的紧急事件中对人们的疏散行为起着重要作用。这项研究的发现可以帮助负责机构了解被疏散者的复杂行为，从而设计出有效的策略来减轻此类事件造成的经济损失和人员伤亡。