Abstract The severity of environmental threats, especially climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution, are well established, as is the urgent need for them to be addressed. These threats act both in isolation as well as synergistically to contribute to overall ‘environmental breakdown’. Debate exists around the most optimal governance and policy approaches to address these threats and, to date, little quantitative evidence exists to compare the different approaches. Using a modified Bayesian belief network model to assess the probability of environmental threats, we compare and contrast a range of proposed policy solutions to a selection of contemporary environmental problems that have been identified as having the potential to contribute to, or indeed may lead to environmental breakdown. Through interrogation of the models, we conclude that policies that prioritise economic growth at the expense of nature would be largely ineffective, whereas a more integrated approach, adopting comprehensive ‘Green New Deal’ policies combined with nature-based solutions would be the most effective approaches to preventing environmental breakdown, as they address societal and environmental issues simultaneously. We therefore recommend that decision makers take an integrated approach to decision making and policy development, accounting for social, economic and environmental drivers that ensure delivery of multiple benefits and real change.

中文翻译：

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评估环境破坏的最佳解决方案

摘要 环境威胁的严重性，特别是气候变化、生物多样性丧失和污染，已经是公认的，迫切需要解决这些问题。这些威胁既孤立又协同作用，导致整体“环境崩溃”。围绕解决这些威胁的最佳治理和政策方法存在争论，迄今为止，几乎没有定量证据来比较不同的方法。使用修改后的贝叶斯信念网络模型来评估环境威胁的可能性，我们将一系列提议的政策解决方案与选定的当代环境问题进行比较和对比，这些问题已被确定为有可能导致或实际上可能导致环境问题分解。通过对模型的询问，我们得出的结论是，以牺牲自然为代价优先考虑经济增长的政策在很大程度上是无效的，而更综合的方法，采用综合性的“绿色新政”政策与基于自然的解决方案相结合，将是防止环境崩溃的最有效方法，因为它们同时解决社会和环境问题。因此，我们建议决策者对决策和政策制定采取综合方法，考虑社会、经济和环境驱动因素，以确保实现多重效益和真正的变革。采用全面的“绿色新政”政策与基于自然的解决方案相结合，将是防止环境崩溃的最有效方法，因为它们同时解决了社会和环境问题。因此，我们建议决策者对决策和政策制定采取综合方法，考虑社会、经济和环境驱动因素，以确保实现多重效益和真正的变革。采用全面的“绿色新政”政策与基于自然的解决方案相结合，将是防止环境崩溃的最有效方法，因为它们同时解决了社会和环境问题。因此，我们建议决策者对决策和政策制定采取综合方法，考虑社会、经济和环境驱动因素，以确保实现多重效益和真正的变革。