Abstract Collapse is one of the main hazards during tunnel construction by the drill-and-blast method. In order to evaluate the collapse risk and provide a basis for risk control, a failure probability evaluation method for collapse of drill-and-blast tunnels based on the multistate fuzzy Bayesian network is proposed in this paper. First, the typical tunnel collapse cases are analyzed statistically based on the risk breakdown structure method, a fault tree model is built for drill-and-blast tunnel collapses and the causal relationships between the tunnel collapse and the influential factors, such as natural conditions, engineering geology and construction etc., are revealed. Secondly, the multiple fault states of nodes, including rock mass grade and groundwater, are described by the fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy subsets are utilized to describe the failure probability of nodes and the uncertain logic relationship between nodes described by the multistate fuzzy conditional probability table is established. In order to ensure the reliability of the survey data when evaluating the possibility intervals of the multistate fuzzy conditional probability tables and the fuzzy failure probability of root nodes, as well as taking the expert judgment ability level and subjective reliability level into consideration, an expert investigation method based on the confidence indicator is proposed. Finally, in order to fully exploit expert knowledge and empirical data, the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification so as to obtain precise parameters for the conditional probability tables. The 3σ criterion is employed to calculate the characteristic values of triangular fuzzy numbers so as to determine the prior fuzzy failure probability of root nodes. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the proposed method is capable of calculating the probability distribution of tunnel collapse and identifying the critical risk factors under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. Taking the collapse failure probability evaluation for the Xiucun Tunnel passing through the fault F18 as an example, the application results demonstrated the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method and it can be utilized as a decision-making tool for safety risk management during tunnel construction.

中文翻译：

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基于多态模糊贝叶斯网络的钻爆隧道坍塌失效概率评估方法

摘要 倒塌是钻爆法隧道施工中的主要危害之一。为评估坍塌风险，为风险控制提供依据，提出一种基于多态模糊贝叶斯网络的钻爆隧道坍塌失效概率评估方法。首先，基于风险分解结构法对典型隧道坍塌案例进行统计分析，建立了钻爆隧道坍塌事故树模型，分析了隧道坍塌与自然条件、影响因素等影响因素之间的因果关系。工程地质和建筑等，被揭示。其次，用模糊数描述节点的多断层状态，包括岩体等级和地下水。利用模糊子集描述节点的失效概率，建立多态模糊条件概率表描述的节点间的不确定逻辑关系。为保证调查数据在评估多态模糊条件概率表的可能性区间和根节点的模糊失效概率时的可靠性，同时考虑专家判断能力水平和主观可靠性水平，进行了专家调查。提出了基于置信度指标的方法。最后，为了充分利用专家知识和经验数据，采用α加权估值方法进行去模糊化，以获得条件概率表的精确参数。采用3σ准则计算三角模糊数的特征值，从而确定根节点的先验模糊失效概率。通过模糊贝叶斯推理，该方法能够在先验知识和给定证据的情况下计算隧道坍塌的概率分布并识别关键风险因素。以修村隧道穿越F18断层的倒塌破坏概率评估为例，应用结果证明了该方法的可行性和有效性，可作为隧道施工安全风险管理的决策工具。通过模糊贝叶斯推理，该方法能够在先验知识和给定证据的情况下计算隧道坍塌的概率分布并识别关键风险因素。以修村隧道穿越F18断层的倒塌破坏概率评估为例，应用结果证明了该方法的可行性和有效性，可作为隧道施工安全风险管理的决策工具。通过模糊贝叶斯推理，该方法能够在先验知识和给定证据的情况下计算隧道坍塌的概率分布并识别关键风险因素。以修村隧道穿越F18断层的倒塌破坏概率评估为例，应用结果证明了该方法的可行性和有效性，可作为隧道施工安全风险管理的决策工具。