Abstract

This paper investigates degradation modeling under dynamic conditions and its applications. Both univariate and multiple competing degradation processes are considered with individual degradation paths being described by Wiener processes. Parametric and non-parametric approaches are used to capture the effect of environmental conditions on process parameters. For competing degradation processes, we obtain the probability that a particular process reaches a pre-defined threshold, before other processes, over future time intervals. In particular, we consider the potential statistical dependence among the latent remaining lifetimes of multiple degradation processes due to unobserved future environmental factors. Two case studies, aircraft piston pump wear and US highway performance deterioration, are presented. Comprehensive comparison studies are also performed to generate some critical insights on the proposed approach. Data have been made available on GitHub.

摘要

本文研究了动态条件下的退化建模及其应用。单变量和多竞争退化过程都被考虑到，单个退化路径由维纳过程描述。参数和非参数方法用于捕捉环境条件对过程参数的影响。对于竞争退化过程，我们获得特定过程在未来时间间隔内在其他过程之前达到预定阈值的概率。特别是，由于未观察到的未来环境因素，我们考虑了多个降解过程的潜在剩余寿命之间的潜在统计依赖性。介绍了两个案例研究，飞机活塞泵磨损和美国公路性能恶化。还进行了全面的比较研究，以对所提出的方法产生一些重要的见解。数据已在 GitHub 上提供。