Currently, many studies on the severity of traffic conflicts only considered the possibility of potential collisions but ignored the consequences severity of potential collisions. Aiming toward this defect, this study establishes a potential collision (serious conflict) consequences severity model on the basis of vehicle collision theory. Regional vehicles trajectory data and historical traffic accident data were obtained. The field data were brought into the conflict consequences severity model to calculate the conflict severity rate of each section under different TTC thresholds. For comparison, the traditional conflict rate of each section under different TTC thresholds that considered only the number of conflicts was also calculated. Results showed that the relationship between conflict severity rate and influencing factors was somehow different. The conflict severity rate seemed to have a higher correlation with accident rate and accident severity rate than conflict rate did. The TTC threshold value also affected the correlation between conflicts and accidents, with high and low TTC threshold indicating a lower correlation. The results showed that conflict severity rate that considered each single conflict consequence severity was a little better than the traditional conflict rate that considered only the numbers of conflicts in reflecting real risks as a new conflict evaluation indicator. The severity of traffic conflicts should consider two dimensions: the possibility and consequence of potential collisions. Based on this, we propose a new traffic safety evaluation method that takes into account the severity of the consequences of the conflict. More data and prediction models are needed to conduct more realistic and complex research in the future to ensure reliability of this new method.

中文翻译：

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寻找交通冲突的后果严重性

当前，许多关于交通冲突严重性的研究仅考虑了潜在冲突的可能性，却忽略了潜在冲突的后果严重性。针对该缺陷，本研究基于车辆碰撞理论建立了潜在的碰撞（严重冲突）后果严重性模型。获得了区域车辆的轨迹数据和历史交通事故数据。将现场数据放入冲突后果严重性模型中，以计算不同TTC阈值下每个部分的冲突严重性比率。为了进行比较，还计算了在不同的TTC阈值下每个部分的传统冲突率，该冲突率仅考虑了冲突数。结果表明，冲突严重程度与影响因素之间的关系有所不同。与冲突发生率相比，冲突严重程度与事故发生率和事故严重程度的相关性似乎更高。TTC阈值还影响冲突和事故之间的相关性，高和低的TTC阈值表示较低的相关性。结果表明，考虑到每个冲突后果严重性的冲突严重性比率略高于传统冲突率，传统冲突率仅考虑了反映真实风险的冲突数量，并将其作为新的冲突评估指标。交通冲突的严重性应考虑两个方面：潜在冲突的可能性和后果。基于此，我们提出了一种新的交通安全评估方法，该方法考虑了冲突后果的严重性。为了确保这种新方法的可靠性，将来需要更多的数据和预测模型来进行更现实，更复杂的研究。