Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) like methane, ozone and aerosols have a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO₂ and are often assumed to have a short-term effect on the climate system: should their emissions cease, so would their radiative forcing (RF). However, via their climate impact, SLCFs can affect carbon sinks and atmospheric CO₂, causing additional climate change. Here, we use a compact Earth system model to attribute CO₂ RF to direct CO₂ emissions and to climate–carbon feedbacks since the pre-industrial era. We estimate the climate–carbon feedback contributed 93 ± 50 mW m⁻² (~5%) to total RF of CO₂ in 2010. Of this, SLCF impacts were −13 ± 50 mW m⁻², made up of cooling (−115 ± 43 mW m⁻²) and warming (102 ± 26 mW m⁻²) terms that largely cancel. This study illustrates the long-term impact that short-lived species have on climate and indicates that past (and future) change in atmospheric CO₂ cannot be attributed only to CO₂ emissions.

甲烷，臭氧和气溶胶之类的短寿命气候强迫物（SLCF）的大气寿命比CO ₂短，通常被认为会对气候系统产生短期影响：如果它们的排放停止，那么它们的辐射强迫（RF） ）。但是，SLCF通过其对气候的影响会影响碳汇和大气中的CO ₂，从而引起更多的气候变化。在这里，我们使用紧凑的地球系统模型将CO ₂ RF归因于工业化前时代以来的直接CO ₂排放以及气候-碳反馈。我们估计2010年气候-碳反馈对CO _2的总RF贡献了93±50 mW m ^-2（〜5 ％）。其中，SLCF的影响为-13±50 mW m ^-2，由很大程度上抵消的冷却（-115±43 mW m ^-2）和温暖（102±26 mW m ^-2）项组成。这项研究说明了短命物种对气候的长期影响，并指出大气中CO _2的过去（和将来）变化不能仅归因于CO ₂排放。