Abstract To determine the spatial distribution of earthquake potential along the active Himalayan arc, we utilize GPS measurements and earthquake data. We derive horizontal velocity field and 2-D strain rates from a new set of 41 regional GPS stations along with 446 published velocities. We convert these strain rate tensors to geodetic moment rate build-up within 24 contiguous segments and compare to the seismic moment rate release derived from a reassessed earthquake catalog of 900 years. The geodetic to seismic moment rate ratio, an indicator of stored strain energy, varies from below unity to more than 50 in different segments. The estimated geodetic moment rate ranges from 1.7 × 1018 Nm/yr to 10.2 × 1018 Nm/yr, whereas the seismic moment rate ranges from 3.7 × 1016 Nm/yr to 5.1 × 1019 Nm/yr. This variation between the geodetic and seismic moment rate corresponds to a moment deficit rate of ∼1.15×1017 Nm/yr to 7.97 × 1018 Nm/yr along various segments of the study region. The above moment deficit rate provides an equivalent earthquake potential of magnitude 5.7 − 8.2 in different segments. Specifically, the higher earthquake potential (Mw≥8.0) corresponds to the segments in the central seismic gap and the northeast part of Himalaya, whereas the lower earthquake potential (Mw

中文翻译：

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沿喜马拉雅弧的地震势空间分布

摘要 为了确定沿活动喜马拉雅弧的地震潜力的空间分布，我们利用 GPS 测量和地震数据。我们从一组新的 41 个区域 GPS 站以及 446 个已发布的速度中推导出水平速度场和二维应变率。我们将这些应变率张量转换为 24 个连续段内的大地力矩率累积，并与来自重新评估的 900 年地震目录的地震力矩率释放进行比较。大地测量与地震矩率比是存储应变能的指标，在​​不同的段中从低于 1 到超过 50 不等。估计的大地力矩率范围从 1.7 × 1018 Nm/yr 到 10.2 × 1018 Nm/yr，而地震矩率范围从 3.7 × 1016 Nm/yr 到 5.1 × 1019 Nm/yr。大地测量和地震矩率之间的这种变化对应于沿研究区域不同部分的约 1.15×1017 Nm/yr 到 7.97 × 1018 Nm/yr 的矩不足率。上述力矩赤字率提供了不同区段的 5.7 - 8.2 级等效地震潜势。具体而言，较高的地震潜势（Mw≥8.0）对应于中央地震间隙和喜马拉雅东北部的段，而较低的地震潜势（Mw）