Abstract Most existing healthcare accessibility studies ignore the travel time uncertainty that are commonly encountered in road networks. This study aims to examine the impacts of travel time uncertainty on healthcare accessibility. A reliability-based two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method is proposed to evaluate healthcare accessibility under travel time uncertainty. The proposed measure generalizes the conventional 2SFCA measure by explicitly considering individuals' reliability constraints when scheduling visits to healthcare facilities in the face of travel time uncertainty. The proposed measure is further used to investigate travel time uncertainty impacts in a comprehensive case study. A big dataset of taxi trajectories is collected in the case study to extract dynamic information on travel time distributions. The results of the case study highlight the significant but heterogeneous impacts of travel time uncertainty on healthcare accessibility for various parts of the city at different times of the day. They also have several methodological implications for the evaluation of healthcare accessibility under travel time uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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评估旅行时间不确定性下医疗服务的空间可达性：基于可靠性的浮动集水区方法

摘要 大多数现有的医疗保健可达性研究忽略了道路网络中常见的旅行时间不确定性。本研究旨在检验旅行时间不确定性对医疗保健可及性的影响。提出了一种基于可靠性的两步浮动集水区 (2SFCA) 方法来评估旅行时间不确定性下的医疗可及性。拟议的措施通过在面对旅行时间不确定性的情况下安排访问医疗机构时明确考虑个人的可靠性约束来概括传统的 2SFCA 措施。在综合案例研究中，提议的措施进一步用于调查旅行时间不确定性的影响。案例研究中收集了一个大型出租车轨迹数据集，以提取有关旅行时间分布的动态信息。案例研究的结果突出了出行时间不确定性对城市不同地区在一天中不同时间的医疗保健可及性的显着但异质性影响。它们对于在旅行时间不确定的情况下评估医疗保健可及性也有几个方法论意义。