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Obtaining suitable logic-tree weights for probabilistic earthquake-induced landslide hazard analyses
Engineering Geology ( IF 6.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105743
M.J. Rodríguez-Peces , J.C. Román-Herrera , J.A. Peláez , J. Delgado , M. Tsige , C. Missori , S. Martino , J. Garrido

Abstract In this study, an inventory of landslides induced by the 2011 Lorca earthquake (Mw 5.1) has been used in order to develop a new procedure to obtain objective logic-tree weights for a probabilistic earthquake-induced landslide hazard analysis. The 2011 Lorca earthquake triggered more than 250 landslides, mainly of disrupted type. The logic-tree was designed having regard to variability of relevant geotechnical parameters involved in the problem and uncertainties associated with the use of several empirical relationships in order to compute Newmark displacements. For the purpose, the resulting hazard maps were compared with this landslide inventory, and weights estimated for each branch of the logic tree based on these results. The best model for seismic landslide hazard mapping for a moderate earthquake correctly identifies around 72% of landslide areas. Based on the set of parameters that comprises (depth of failure surface, specific weight, cohesion, friction angle and Newmark displacement model), the corresponding weights were objectively established. These weights are reliable enough for the obtaining seismic landslide hazard maps and may be implemented in similar environments characterized by moderate-low magnitude earthquakes (Mw

中文翻译:

为概率性地震诱发的滑坡灾害分析获得合适的逻辑树权重

摘要 在这项研究中,已使用 2011 年洛尔卡地震 (Mw 5.1) 诱发的滑坡清单,以开发一种新程序,以获得用于概率性地震诱发滑坡灾害分析的客观逻辑树权重。2011 年洛尔卡地震引发了 250 多次山体滑坡,主要是被破坏的类型。逻辑树的设计考虑了问题中涉及的相关岩土参数的可变性以及与使用几种经验关系相关的不确定性,以便计算 Newmark 位移。为此,将生成的灾害地图与该滑坡清单进行比较,并根据这些结果为逻辑树的每个分支估计权重。中度地震地震滑坡灾害绘图的最佳模型正确识别了大约 72% 的滑坡区域。根据包括(破坏面深度、比重、内聚力、摩擦角和Newmark位移模型)的参数集,客观地建立了相应的权重。这些权重对于获得地震滑坡危险图足够可靠,并且可以在以中低震级地震(Mw)为特征的类似环境中实施
更新日期:2020-09-01
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