Youd’s method is a widely adopted standard penetration test based approach for evaluation of liquefaction potential. This method was established by pooling the post-earthquake survey data collected from different regions of the world, and its accuracy may vary when applied in different regions. This paper investigates the inter-region variability associated with the accuracy of Youd’s method using a Bayesian model. It is found that Youd’s method is on average biased towards conservatism, and there does exist the inter-region variability associated with the uncertainty of the model bias factor. Nevertheless, the inter-region variability associated with the model uncertainty of Youd’s method is less significant than the intra-region variability. Due to the existence of inter-region variability, the same factor of safety (FOS) may imply different levels of liquefaction probabilities in different regions. If the inter-region variability is not considered, the obtained FOS—failure probability relationship may lead to underestimation or overestimation of the liquefaction potential when applied in different regions. A verification method is proposed to compare the predicted number of liquefied cases with the actual number of liquefied cases in each region. An illustrative example for assessing the liquefaction potential is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

Youd方法是一种广泛采用的基于标准渗透率测试的方法，用于评估液化潜力。该方法是通过汇总从世界不同地区收集的地震后调查数据而建立的，在不同地区应用时其准确性可能会有所不同。本文研究了使用贝叶斯模型与Youd方法准确性相关的区域间变异性。发现尤德方法平均偏向保守主义，并且确实存在与模型偏倚因素的不确定性相关的区域间可变性。然而，与尤德方法的模型不确定性相关的区域间可变性不如区域内可变性重要。由于区域间存在可变性，相同的安全系数（FOS）可能暗示不同地区的液化概率水平不同。如果不考虑区域间的可变性，则当应用于不同区域时，获得的FOS-故障概率关系可能导致液化潜力的低估或高估。提出了一种验证方法，将每个地区的预计液化病例数与实际液化病例数进行比较。用于评估液化潜力的说明性示例用于证明所提出方法的应用。提出了一种验证方法，将每个地区的预计液化病例数与实际液化病例数进行比较。用于评估液化潜力的说明性示例用于证明所提出方法的应用。提出了一种验证方法，将每个地区的预计液化病例数与实际液化病例数进行比较。用于评估液化潜力的说明性示例用于证明所提出方法的应用。