Abstract People often misperceive other people's beliefs about global warming—for instance, underestimating the percentage of people who think global warming is happening. In the U.S., perceptions of others vary across political lines and interact with the extent to which partisans align or deviate from the views of their political ingroup. With an online sample of U.S. adults (N = 1214), we conduct a partial replication and extension of prior research on the relationship between global warming “opinion deviance” (i.e., taking a stance that conflicts with the prototypical views of one's ingroup) and perceptions of other people's views, using a different methodological approach. We found that, compared with partisans who align with the prototypical views of their ingroup (i.e., political party), opinion-deviant partisans consistently perceive a narrower partisan divide across several views (e.g., belief that global warming is happening, belief that it is human-caused, and support for climate policies), even when statistically controlling for self-reported opinion extremity. Additionally, opinion-deviant Republicans, more than opinion-aligned Republicans, perceive that more Republicans hold pro-climate views. Further, among both Republicans and Democrats, perceptions of pro-climate ingroup consensus correlates with both increased activism intentions and frequency of discussing global warming with family and friends. Our results support theoretical perspectives and research on opinion deviance showing that misperceptions of public opinion about global warming vary based on an interaction between an individual's party affiliation and their individual climate beliefs.

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关于他人全球变暖信念的信念：党派和意见偏差的作用

摘要 人们常常误解其他人对全球变暖的看法——例如，低估了认为全球变暖正在发生的人的百分比。在美国，其他人的看法因政治路线而异，并与党派成员一致或偏离其政治内群体的观点的程度相互作用。通过美国成年人的在线样本（N = 1214），我们对先前关于全球变暖“观点偏差”（即采取与内部群体的典型观点相冲突的立场）之间关系的研究进行了部分复制和扩展使用不同的方法论来理解他人的观点。我们发现，与认同其内群体（即政党）的典型观点的党派人士相比，即使在对自我报告的极端意见进行统计控制的情况下，意见偏差的党派人士始终认为，不同观点之间存在更窄的党派分歧（例如，认为全球变暖正在发生、认为它是由人为原因造成的以及对气候政策的支持）。此外，与观点一致的共和党人认为，与观点不一致的共和党人认为更多的共和党人持有支持气候的观点。此外，在共和党人和民主党人中，对支持气候内部共识的看法与激进主义意图的增加以及与家人和朋友讨论全球变暖的频率相关。我们的研究结果支持关于意见偏差的理论观点和研究，表明公众对全球变暖的误解因个人之间的相互作用而异。