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Estimation of volcanic ashfall deposit and removal works based on ash dispersion simulations
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04134-1
Yosuke Tomii , Tomoya Shibayama , Yuta Nishida , Ryota Nakamura , Non Okumura , Hideaki Yamaguchi , Yosuke Tanokura , Yu Oshima , Natsuko Sugawara , Kota Fujisawa , Takayuki Wakita , Takahito Mikami , Tomoyuki Takabatake , Miguel Esteban

Volcanic ashfall can cause considerable social impacts to a wide geographical area. Given the challenge to predict volcanic eruptions, it is essential to simulate the dispersion of ash as soon as possible after an event and promptly estimate the distribution of deposits and necessary removal works. In this study, a series of procedures to improve the accuracy of the WRF-FALL3D model for the case of the eruption of Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane in 2018 are proposed, which were verified through field surveys of ash deposits, showing that the accuracy of the model can be improved by selecting a range of column heights and promptly conducting field surveys following an event. Also, a methodology to estimate the amount of work necessary to clear road networks and river channels is proposed, which was applied to a volcanic event similar to that of the Hoei eruption of Mt. Fuji in 1707. The results also emphasize the need to improve the estimation of column heights in the future, which is of paramount importance to ensure the safety and operational continuity of human infrastructure in the vicinity of major active volcanoes.



中文翻译:

基于灰分弥散模拟的火山灰沉降量和清除量估算

火山灰可以对广泛的地理区域造成相当大的社会影响。考虑到预测火山喷发的挑战,必须在事件发生后尽快模拟灰分的扩散,并迅速估算出沉积物的分布和必要的清除工作。在这项研究中,针对Mt爆发的情况,采取了一系列程序来提高WRF-FALL3D模型的准确性。提出了2018年的Kusatsu-Shirane,并通过灰烬沉积物的现场调查进行了验证,表明通过选择一定范围的柱高并在事件发生后及时进行现场调查可以提高模型的准确性。另外,提出了一种方法来估算清除道路网和河道所需的工作量,它被应用到类似于海伊火山爆发的火山事件中。1707年的富士。结果还强调了将来需要改进柱高的估算,这对于确保主要活火山附近的人类基础设施的安全性和运营连续性至关重要。

更新日期:2020-07-10
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