While there has been significant research on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using several different seismic sources, this paper focuses particularly on understanding the spatially varying seismic hazard controlled only by earthquakes. In that vein, regarding Turkish seismicity, this study is the first of its kind to explore this conundrum from a Bayesian point of view and offer new estimates to compare with the existing ones. In this study, a national-extent peak ground acceleration (PGA)–driven hazard map (upon 90% quantile of maxima, V_S30 = 760 m/s, and a return period of 475 years) was created and then compared both with the old and new versions of the officially recognized seismic hazard maps of Turkey. Regarding 10 earthquake-prone cities, the new PGA estimates were compared with those picked from these two maps. Next, individual site-based hazard estimates were drawn for these city centers considering the return periods of 43, 72, 140, and 475 years. The present hazard map was in compliance with the seismotectonic setup of Turkey and its PGA estimates were slightly high compared with the last two hazard maps for some specific regions, most of which are located in major active fault zones with a history of intense seismic activity, albeit the figures for low seismic zones were relatively low. With this study, it becomes clear that the process of PSHA, which innately requires a long and tiresome effort, can instantaneously be performed against the changing of catalog data over time, and thence prompt evaluations on variations can consequently be made.

尽管对使用几种不同地震源的概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）进行了大量研究，但本文特别关注于理解仅受地震控制的空间变化的地震危险性。因此，就土耳其的地震活动而言，这项研究是首次从贝叶斯角度探讨这一难题，并提供新的估计以与现有地震比较进行研究。在本研究中，绘制了一个国家范围内的峰值地面加速度（PGA）驱动的危害图（基于最大值的90％分位数，V _S30 = 760 m / s，返回期为475年），然后将其与土耳其官方认可的地震灾害图的新旧版本进行比较。对于10个地震多发的城市，将新的PGA估算值与从这两张地图中选取的估算值进行了比较。接下来，考虑了43、72、140和475年的回归期，对这些城市中心进行了基于地点的单独危险估计。当前的灾害图与土耳其的地震构造相符，与某些地区的最后两个灾害图相比，其PGA估算值略高，其中大部分位于具有强烈地震活动历史的主要活动断层带，尽管低地震带的数字相对较低。通过这项研究，很明显，PSHA的过程，